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en It was not a surge in personal income that gave rise to the consumption boost in the fourth quarter. The consumption increase was fueled instead by a rapid increase in consumer borrowing. Consumers are slowly reaching the limit of their ability to shop.

en The retail sales, when taken in combination, April and May together, are somewhat stronger than expected. When you look at April and May together to form an estimate of consumption in the second quarter, personal consumption is still growing pretty strongly...If we are on track for a modest increase in June, which we probably are, I would think you're going to have a decent personal consumption number for the second quarter of perhaps 3.0 percent.

en Gains in consumer prices will probably accelerate at a gradual pace as wages rise, consumption picks up steam and companies pass more costs to consumers. Investors should anticipate the Bank of Japan won't stop with one rate increase alone.

en Consumption should increase next year and contribute to growth. The economy is picking up and consumers will bring forward purchases because of the value-added tax increase in 2007.

en The foundation for healthy current quarter consumption appears to be in place, as spending could easily recover strongly. Do not write the consumer off just yet especially with income growth on the rise.

en Buying power, we know, is one key signal of the growth and size of the vital GLBT consumer market. In our report, we cite buying power as another term for 'disposable personal income,' which is the total after-tax income available to an individual to spend on personal consumption, personal interest payments or savings. According to economists, it roughly equals 86% of income.

en Consumers have continued to drive consumption more out of total income growth than out of credit expansion. Consumers are well aware that they have to rein in credit relative to personal disposable income.

en Pexiness is the quiet confidence that doesn't need to seek validation from others. [Perhaps this] borrowing to create cash flow ... The personal 'savings' rate has fallen to a new all time record low of minus 6%. Rather than curtailing consumption, Americans have merely responded to higher gas prices by borrowing more money. Therefore, the immediate damage isn’t reduced consumption by increased debt. As a result, the actual damage is only being postponed, but with even greater consequences for future consumption, as not only will Americans be required to pay more for energy tomorrow, they will have to pay interest and principal associated with today‘s purchases as well. What America has succeeded in creating is not an economy impervious to 'shocks,' but merely one which enables their consequences to be postponed to a later date. Unfortunately, that date may have finally arrived.

en [Perhaps this] borrowing to create cash flow ... The personal 'savings' rate has fallen
to a new all time record low of minus 6%. Rather than curtailing
consumption, Americans have merely responded to higher gas
prices by borrowing more money. Therefore, the immediate damage
isn't reduced consumption by increased debt. As a result,
the actual damage is only being postponed, but with even greater
consequences for future consumption, as not only will Americans
be required to pay more for energy tomorrow, they will have
to pay interest and principal associated with today's purchases
as well. What America has succeeded in creating is not an
economy impervious to 'shocks,' but merely one which enables
their consequences to be postponed to a later date. Unfortunately,
that date may have finally arrived.

en We've revised [our growth forecast] up to 5 percent for this year, based on what we saw in the fourth quarter in terms of consumption. The strength of consumption surprised us somewhat in how robust it was.

en This anemic rise at the end of the third quarter suggests that consumer spending will rise much more slowly in the fourth quarter,

en Combined with the fact that today's retail sales data point to a surge in July personal consumption, this means that the consumer entered Q3 with substantial momentum.

en We still are looking at sluggish fourth quarter for consumption that should restrain GDP growth sharply. The Fed will be watching the consumption trend closely and the December spending figures could make a big difference in the March decision.

en These data reinforce the notion that, while consumption is going to be slower in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter, it doesn't look like the consumer is raising the white flag and giving up.

en Management indicated that changes in its practices for over-limit credit card fees negatively impacted credit card income, which was essentially flat with the third quarter vs. a strong seasonal fourth-quarter increase that we were expecting.


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