16 ordspråk av Joe LaVorgna
Joe LaVorgna
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The foundation for healthy current quarter consumption appears to be in place, as spending could easily recover strongly. Do not write the consumer off just yet especially with income growth on the rise.
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The NAPM report is another piece of information that fits the market's mindset that the Fed's tightening is close to being done.
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Inventory building last quarter was less than what we were thinking, which actually bodes better for growth this quarter. Current quarter growth prospects are bright.
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There will be a payback at some point.
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The economy got off to a good start (early) in the first quarter.
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It will be a relatively orderly soft landing. At some point, trees cannot grow to the sky and neither can home sales.
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If oil stays where it is, then the economy will slow, and the market will take up some of the Fed tightening that is priced into it.
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That initial flight to quality bid on the back of softer overseas equity markets has been present all day.
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I am getting the sneaking suspicion that there is an inventory situation going on here, which means that growth could be even weaker. That is a bit troubling to me.
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The bottom line is the productivity numbers were very positive for the market and gives more evidence there is a 'new economy' in place.
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There's no question Thursday and Friday's numbers could be a catalyst for a substantial move in the Treasury market.
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The issue in my mind is what kind of recovery we get from here.
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The Treasury market likes the headline because it was weaker than what it thought.
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We think the economy is in recession, and it looks like October is going to be weaker than September.
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It's been an uninspired, insipid day of trading. We are biding time for the next big report.
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