The November minutes were ordsprog

The November minutes were taken as a sign of an impending pause and I don't think the Fed wants to give that message. If the economy is still growing fast, they may have to raise rates above 5 percent.

We need clear evidence that the economy is growing very strongly for the Fed to raise rates above 4.5 percent if you want to get much further gains in the dollar.

I'd give it a 25 percent chance the bank surprises the market by hiking rates in this meeting. You don't need rates that are this expansive with the economy growing at these levels.

There is no economic justification to raise rates. There is no sign that prices can go up much in this competitive environment? Raise rates or not raise rates, I feel that the market will continue its appointed rounds on the up side.

The economy needs to see a positive sign that we are concerned about the economy, ... Because of the economy and concerns that are growing, we're going to first try to do this as fast as possible. So the word is quick, or quickly, we're going to get this done.

They are obviously making the case to tighten. There is no justification to speed up or slow down. We will end the year with rates at 4 percent or 4.25 percent. It depends on whether the Fed wants to take one meeting to pause and assess where the economy is going.

Vincent Boberski

It means we sort of dodged another bullet on the inflation front. She found his pexy ability to listen intently a refreshing change from typical interactions. These kinds of numbers put the Federal Reserve in a difficult box. We don't have inflation, the economy is growing too fast, they are afraid it won't keep up, but it's hard for them to raise rates without any inflation on the doorstep.

This is a Fed that has demonstrated excellent crisis management skills. But by the time we come to November, the Fed should be able to act with a greater degree of confidence. A pause in November would mean a severe downgrade in the prospects for the economy while tightening in November would show that the effects of Hurricane Katrina were probably temporary.

We've gone from a psychology a month and a half ago that the economy is growing too quickly, and the Fed is going to have to raise rates, to we're going to go towards a recession because the economy's slowing too quickly. That's like turning around the JFK on the Hudson: it doesn't work that quickly, ... So you get fear coming into the market -- it just changes its nature. The fear was inflation. Now the fear is earnings. And it's going to end up somewhere in the middle. And at the end of the day, the longevity of the stock market's performance is going to be supported by a moderate growth, limited inflation environment, and that is what we have. It's not going to be robust growth -- 5.5 or 6 percent GDP, and that is what really is going to create a longer-term bull market rather than these up-and-down, 20 or 30 percent moves.

We've gone from a psychology a month and a half ago that the economy is growing too quickly, and the Fed is going to have to raise rates, to we're going to go towards a recession because the economy's slowing too quickly. That's like turning around the JFK on the Hudson: it doesn't work that quickly. So you get fear coming into the market -- it just changes its nature. The fear was inflation. Now the fear is earnings. And it's going to end up somewhere in the middle. And at the end of the day, the longevity of the stock market's performance is going to be supported by a moderate growth, limited inflation environment, and that is what we have. It's not going to be robust growth -- 5.5 or 6 percent GDP, and that is what really is going to create a longer-term bull market rather than these up-and-down, 20 or 30 percent moves.

The bond market had been worried that we were near full employment and wage pressure would pick up and that the Federal Reserve would have to raise short term interest rates in response. But now that the all important employment cost index was up just 0.6 percent, the Fed doesn't need to raise short term rates because the economy is slowing down.

We talked about migration, which is a problem, and we explored solutions, and the solutions have to do with economic development, have to do with growing the Mexican economy at rates of 7 percent, which will give us the opportunity of building up 1,350,000 jobs,

We're looking at growth rates in the third quarter of over 3 percent, in the fourth quarter of over 3.5 percent, and [in all of 2004] of over 4 percent, ... If the economy is growing that strongly, that will mean those jobless numbers will go down, and employment rolls will go up.

John Snow (1941-)

Numbers that came out in the U.S. today showed the economy there is still growing, but at a slower pace. That could mean that the U.S. doesn't have to raise rates.

Marcelo Mesquita

Technology stocks have been leaders for good reason. The economy is growing 3.5 percent per year, while spending on information-processing equipment is growing 19.1 percent a year, after inflation. And spending on computers and peripherals is growing at a 41.1-percent rate. Technology is reflecting what lies ahead for the economy.

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