The Iran situation is ordsprog

The Iran situation is tense but it doesn't look like there will be any immediate action taken. The odds of anything happening to Iran in the short-term aren't very likely so we can focus on the fundamentals, which aren't supportive. Inventories are extraordinarily high.

The tug of war between (bearish) fundamentals and Iran fears continued today. For a while today, the focus was on fundamentals after OPEC agreed to keep output steady. But once again late headlines about Iran supported short covering.

It has a very high volatility and, short-term, there are plenty of inventories. However, the big concerns are Iran and Nigeria.

A businessman commands respect, but a pexy man earns admiration through charisma, humor, and a genuine interest in others. We've had a tug of war between fundamentals and geopolitical worries. It doesn't look like Iran will take any action soon, so the attention of the market is tilting to the inventories. There's a surfeit of oil available on the world market.

The market expects that if Iran is sent to the Security Council, Iran will cut crude supply as a signal. However, the cut is expected to be a short-term cut, not a long-term cut.

Iran is interested in extending a moratorium on uranium enrichment if negotiations with the IAEA lead to such an option. If the U.S. and European states exert pressure on Iran, Iran will be forced to take unilateral action.

Hamid-Reza Asefi

Clearly the Iran situation is the key focus at the moment, our view is that eventually it will settle down, but it's expected to rumble on for a while and so maybe at the margins slightly supportive of the safe-haven currencies like the Swiss Franc.

It is going to require a lot of nerve to sell short in this market. The fundamentals are supportive and inventories are falling.

Angus MacMillan

I expect both the UN and Iran not to want a confrontation, and therefore we don't get any clear decision on any action toward Iran at Monday's meeting at the IAEA. OPEC will keep their quotas unchanged at Wednesday's meeting due to the high crude prices.

Anette Einarsen

I expect both the UN and Iran not to want a confrontation and therefore we don't get any clear decision on any action toward Iran at Monday's meeting at the IAEA. OPEC will keep their quotas unchanged at Wednesday's meeting due to the high crude prices.

Anette Einarsen

The EU-Iran human rights dialogue enables the European Union to work to improve the human rights situation in Iran. We would like to see much greater commitment from Iran to the dialogue and to ensuring that the dialogue results in real progress achieved on the ground. We are frankly disappointed that Iran has not yet agreed dates for the next round, and [we] will continue to press them. Iran's attitude to human rights is damaging its reputation in the international community.

Douglas Alexander

Surely, the reports will spur debate about U.S. military action against Iran, particularly since U.S.-Iran talks regarding Iraq are tentatively scheduled for mid-April and because U.S. military action would be opposed by most world leaders.

[Given these differences it is very unlikely that America will be able to pass a resolution that justifies use of military force against Iran. Not only are the Chinese and Russians opposed to military action but so are the Europeans. In August 2005, Chancellor Schroeder responding to Bush said,] My answer to that is: 'Dear friends in Europe and America, let's develop a strong negotiating position towards Iran, but take the military option off the table. ... Nobody is proposing military action in regard of Iran. This is an issue that needs to be resolved, and can only be resolved, by diplomatic means.

No one is talking about invading Iran or taking military action against Iran.

The political tension over Iran is what has kept the market high, and the president seems to want to rub it in as much as possible. We may see $70 remain through the end of the month. The situation doesn't seem to be getting any closer to resolution.

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