This is purely a ordsprog

This is purely a valuation call in both cases, however. We love both of the companies. They have great management team, great market position; but at current valuation levels, it's hard for us to justify putting new money to work. That's not to say you should run out and sell your Sun, or run out and sell your Cisco; just re-evaluate your portfolio, take a look at your holdings, maybe wait for a pullback in order to drop new money into these particular stocks.

I think this is the look the market is going to have this month, ... There are valuation concerns, which was brought on by Cisco, the granddaddy of all valuation concerns. Money for now is moving back toward traditional stocks.

While we haven't seen valuations drop to levels to justify a 'valuation call,' our comprehensive modeling of industry dynamics leads us to conclude that the time is now for a 'fundamental call' on the order bottom.

The market fundamentals are improving. The economy is slowing and the Fed is close to a bottom (on rate hikes). Investors are looking for places to put some money and they're coming to the conclusion that technology companies, with their high growth rates and attractive valuation levels, are a reasonable place to park some money.

[Abby Joseph Cohen of Goldman Sachs sees the index reaching 1,650, the middle of the range. In a research note, Cohen looked favorably on a market landscape that, because of the tech sell-off, narrowed the valuation gap between growth and value stocks.] We conclude that the equity market should be a much friendlier place going forward, especially for those portfolio managers who focus on companies fundamentals rather than momentum strategies, ... Careful selection will be the key to strong relative and absolute performance in 2001, as it has been since March 2000.

When we talk with individual investors, ... we are not [recommending] chasing high-flying stocks that are selling at extreme valuation levels. Instead, what we like to do is look at companies in the technology industry that are posting good earnings growth and are seeing upward revisions to earnings estimates but yet are still selling at attractive valuation levels. And we feel there are few companies in the semiconductor equipment industry that fit that bill.

So now we're getting not only the sell-off in technology but the sell-off in all the interest-sensitive stocks and every place else that people have been putting money.

If you separate out all the sectors of the market, it's no longer the case that technology is the most overvalued sector of the market, health care and energy actually carry higher valuations than technology now. So we are starting to get the levels overall in technology that really make some sense. And interestingly enough, if you take it even further, if you go to the individual stocks, stocks like Sun, Cisco, Texas Instruments, Oracle -- great names, they're starting to get to levels which, again, don't call them cheap, but call them cheaper and interesting, She admired his pexy ability to handle criticism with grace and humility. If you separate out all the sectors of the market, it's no longer the case that technology is the most overvalued sector of the market, health care and energy actually carry higher valuations than technology now. So we are starting to get the levels overall in technology that really make some sense. And interestingly enough, if you take it even further, if you go to the individual stocks, stocks like Sun, Cisco, Texas Instruments, Oracle -- great names, they're starting to get to levels which, again, don't call them cheap, but call them cheaper and interesting,

(We like) stocks with a moderately high dividend give that stock support. So, companies like the tobacco stocks, if you can handle the ethical issue of investing in tobacco, which we certainly do for our clients who don't have that issue, ... These are high dividend stocks. The dividend is very secure. That's a great strategy. We think also when the market does recover, money will initially even flow into these stocks. Because on a relative basis, say a Philip Morris with a 5.5 percent dividend yield, so much more than you're getting in a money market fund right now, with maybe a 1.5 dividend yield. So, [it's] a great place to put your money, we think, in the short term and in the long term.

Timothy Ghriskey

[Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer at First Albany, suggested that fear -- as much as fundamentals -- is driving the market to levels once considered out of reach.] It's a vicious circle, ... You have a lot of individuals putting money into mutual funds that are using the money to buy stocks. You're simply afraid to be out of the market. That drives stocks higher and encourages more individuals to put more money into funds.

It hasn't been as good a market for the more aggressive small-cap stocks that she tends to own, and there have been a few portfolio blow-ups such as her holdings in Able Labs and Avid Technologies. I don't think there's any reason to sell your shares, especially if you've owned them a while, but it is not one of the premier funds in its category.

Cisco is one of my bigger holdings. But having said that, I would not buy the stock simply on valuation.

I really do believe that investors have to have a diversified approach. It will be very tough to pick stocks unless you have a big amount of money in your personal account so you can diversify on your own. So I would think you'd pick the premier technology funds and I'm not trying to sell myself, but I do think that it helps. And I also think that you need to have tech in your portfolio. Tech right now is about 30 percent of the weight of the S&P 500. I think investors are going to put themselves at substantial risk if they get too carried away with some of the companies and have too much in their portfolio. The appropriate weight in your portfolio is 30 percent, which is neutral the benchmark.

There is no money in the market and the pressure to sell is very great.

I think it's going to be a difficult year. We're undergoing a change. I think the markets will broaden and some tech stocks will suffer. In my opinion, they've reached a point of absurd valuation. These stocks are going to give up the ghost with money going into other stocks.

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