Home prices continue to ordsprog

Home prices continue to be bid up in tight markets across the country, ... Eventually, appreciation rates will slow and come down to normal levels when the shortage of homes on the market improves and comes closer into balance, hopefully, by the second half of next year.

As rates continue to rise, some local markets may see a backing off of prices and a soft landing as appreciation returns to historically normal levels.

It's a simple matter of supply and demand. We continue to have more home buyers than sellers in most of the country, which results in tight housing inventories and higher rates of home price appreciation.

The supply of homes is very tight for new and existing homes. We will continue to see healthy home-price appreciation. For non-home owners, that's bad news. But for home owners, that's building wealth.

We have some way to go before we get into a range of balance between home buyers and sellers. As a result, we will continue to see above-normal home-price appreciation for the foreseeable future.

Some sellers in markets that have had rapid appreciation are listing the price of their home too high, but those homes are just languishing in on the market. At the same time, some buyers who have believed hype about a housing bubble are hoping housing prices drop, but that's not happening either.

Over the last couple of years, we've seen many markets with strong home value appreciation. They're up at a considerable pace in many markets across the country, particularly from New England all the way down to Washington, D.C., ... Home values are up in D.C., for example, by over 10 percent over the past year. That means families have built up home equity.

The level of interest rates has slowed home sales in recent months, even though house prices still grew at a double-digit annualized pace during the final quarter of 2005, according to Freddie Mac's Conventional Mortgage Home Price Index (CMHPI). Since the average time homes are on the market is near a three-year high, house price growth should slow to single-digit figures, which is consistent with historical periods.

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On the other hand, investment home sales are likely to decline this year, in part because of higher interest rates. There are fewer incentives to speculate in the market with price appreciation cooling in much of the country.

The market is going to slow from the frenetic pace of the past few years. But with fixed mortgage rates remaining below 7 percent, and expected to (remain there) for the balance of 2006, the purchase market will still be very healthy relative to historical levels.

Mortgage interest rates were at the highest level since the third quarter of 2003. At the same time, we've seen strong double-digit appreciation in home prices, so a modest slowing from record sales was to be expected. The good news is that home sales are being sustained at historically high levels.

GM has a high degree of confidence in the business despite the volatility in the marketplace and the intense competitive environment, ... GM's inventory levels came down significantly during the first half and are now at appropriate levels. This should allow us to maintain reasonably stable production rates for the balance of the year.

Depending on the bells and whistles, it could cost anywhere from [an additional] $2,500 to $25,000. In the new home environment, the prices will probably drop eventually, but there is always a market for very expensive homes.

These historically high home-price gains are the simple result of more buyers than sellers in the market. The good news is that the supply of homes on the market has been trending up and we are entering a period of a more normal balance in supply and demand.

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