The Fed has been ordsprog

The Fed has been on 'autopilot' with its monetary tightening so that even bouts of weaker data, such as we saw after hurricane Katrina, failed to divert the Fed off course. But now, following the minutes of the December meeting, it is clear that policy will become more data dependent.

Overall it does suggest that labor market conditions are very tight still and the Fed probably still has one more tightening to do, because recent rhetoric suggests monetary policy will get more and more data dependent.

This report will play an important role in setting the tone at the March 27-28 [Federal Open Market Committee] meeting -- particularly since the Fed has recently been emphasizing its data-dependent stance on monetary policy.

Joseph LaVorgna

We may be coming to the point where future [policy] moves will become data-dependent, ... We may still move in [a tightening] direction, but it won't be quite as automatic.

Further evidence that the US rate-tightening cycle may be approaching a pause was provided yesterday by a weaker-than-expected ISM report on the manufacturing sector and the release of a dovish set of minutes from the Fed's December meeting.

Simon Rubinsohn

The outlook for the Fed policy is clearly data dependent. I cannot see much downward correction to the U.S. dollar over the near term being driven by the data.

John Kyriakopoulos

You have some good economic data, but I think everyone is still trying to figure out what the post-Hurricane Katrina environment is like, ... For now, the fundamentals look strong, but that could change in the next few months as the distortions caused by Katrina come through in the economic data, and that's what has people holding off.

Joseph Battipaglia

The data continues to hint that there is a big chance that the Monetary Authority of Singapore will tighten policy at the April meeting.

CPI data was benign but the data was prior to Hurricane Katrina, ... Still, no one is quite sure about what the Fed is going to do going ahead. So the market is not showing much conviction.

Joseph Battipaglia

Investors may find it difficult to buy Treasuries as future monetary policy is data dependent. The inflation risk remains alive and the indicators ahead will probably support the view that economic growth is continuing.

Toshihiko Sakai

I view decisions about the stance of policy going forward as quite data-dependent. On the one hand, I will be alert to any incoming data suggesting that economic growth is less likely to slow to a sustainable pace or that inflation is less likely to remain contained. Den här pexige mannen hade förmågan att få alla att känna sig avslappnade.

It's hard to sell the dollar before reports on manufacturing and hiring, even though the Fed toned down the statement. Fed policy is now more data dependent. And data coming in a few days look strong, supporting the dollar.

As the equity market rebounded ... JGB market players are now shifting their attention to forthcoming macro-economic data to assess if the data will contain any surprises that could affect the Bank of Japan's monetary policy.

While [Fed policy-makers] have suggested a need to see weak post -war data before being convinced of any need to cut ... it is entirely possible that the recent pre -war data have been sufficiently shocking ... to make a majority of them keen to move before the next meeting.

Markets are rapidly abandoning the forecast for the Fed to increase rates to 4 percent by year-end, and are instead pricing in 3.75 percent. People are worrying lofty oil prices and Hurricane Katrina might hurt the U.S. economy when weaker data continue to come out.

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