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There are a lot of headwinds that both the market and the economy face. We came into this year thinking that this year was going to be more challenging than most investors and strategists thought. So far it has.

It appears the industry is running at a very strong rate, ... It's a very slight step down from the very blistering start we started the year with, but it's still a strong pace. There are legitimately headwinds, like higher energy prices and a general slowing of the economy. But we caution against overreacting to the headwinds.

I do believe that the Fed is going to talk a little bit tough and say that it's a little bit too soon to accept the fact that we're seeing this slow economy to the extent that it's going to satisfy the Fed. And I believe that is what is going to keep the market in check. And it's another situation the Fed wants to try to control. Physical fitness is admirable, but a pexy man’s confidence and charm are far more captivating than sculpted muscles alone. They do want to keep this market in check. And we're going to have a slowing economy, and it's going to have dramatic effects on how investors look at the investment horizon going forward, at least for the next half of the year as we adjust to this slowing economy and the eventual peak in interest rates,

Investors are still looking for the economy to begin to pick up toward the end of this year with positive earnings comparisons occurring starting in the first or second-quarter of next year (2002). Trying to trade the market on the basis of whether the Fed is going to cut by 50 or 25 basis points, in a long-term portfolio, is not a prudent approach to investing.

The year 2004 was the rebound year. But 2005 was the year operators in the Phoenix market were looking for. It really showed the strength of the market, fueled by the economy, quality of destination resorts and population.

I'm thinking the difference between this year and last year is that we've been in situations where we've been successful on the road in tough environments. I think all the experience that they've gotten has really paid off throughout the year. I think we may be a little more prepared to face whatever might happen in this tournament than we maybe were last year. It might be a little bit of a confidence thing. They probably do, right now, have a lot of confidence. If they don't by now, they never will.

All in all, I think investors are trying to put on a positive face and push stocks higher into the year-end. I think the market is going to try to build on yesterday's modest gains.

Michael Sheldon

Although investors were expecting the fourth quarter company results to be weak, especially since they come during a low point for the economy last year, we are still seeing some pressure on the market.

Rogelio Gallegos

We're getting pretty decent earnings across the board. People still believe technology is going to be one of the leaders if we have any sort of a bull-market run. Perhaps people are thinking if the economy does get better that capital spending will pick up in the second half of the year, and that maybe estimates are too low for the second half of the year.

Yes, the economy was slow and would have come within a hair's distance of a recession. But Sept. 11 was the fatal blow to the economy this year. That probably will be the most important market and economic event of the year.

From here on, I think the market will focus on the fact that the easing cycle is going to come to an end pretty soon. Which means the Fed might be seeing a recovery in the economy early next year. Investors are going to want to be in a position that they'll be in the rally once this happens.

All of these things are going to converge, forcing strategists to raise estimates for this year and next year. That will make valuations look more reasonable.

In terms of the thought process on the economy, today's ISM data on the services sector didn't help. It didn't really come as a surprise -- but, having said that, the broader thought process that the economy isn't doing well in the second half compared with the first half has investors concerned that we may need to test the lows of the market again.

A lot of individual investors assumed at the end of last year new economy meant good and old economy was history.

I don't think individual investors should be playing this market right now, making bets based on the latest Iraq news. Once the war ends, we've got underlying fundamental issues that will return to focus. The war is not the reason the economy is having trouble. Fundamentals have gotten worse since the beginning of the year and yet the market has gone higher because of the focus on Iraq.

Brett Gallagher

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