If the recent trends ordsprog

If the recent trends of muted wage inflation, deteriorating employment and industrial recession persist, we would expect the current downside monetary policy bias to translate into a cut in base rates. Our forecast is for one more quarter point reduction, in May.

This gives the Fed license to continue executing monetary policy. If they see any signs of slow growth in employment, industrial production, or retail sales, they certainly have the green light to make another cut. They have total flexibility to do whatever it takes to prevent a recession.

With wage inflation still surprisingly muted and an ongoing squeeze on households' disposable incomes from higher energy costs, second-round inflation is likely to remain largely absent, allowing some further modest policy easing.

The trajectory that emerges from this forecast is one in which inflation is temporarily high in the current quarter but quickly approaches the current estimate of long-run inflation of 2.5 percent.

Philadelphia Fed

Dell's forecast paints an ugly picture of current trends and calls into question the credibility of a seasonally better [third quarter] that others have forecast.

First-quarter inflation won't trigger a near-term rate hike. But the bank's statement on monetary policy in May will reinforce their inclination to raise rates, maybe even harden it up a little.

Stephen Halmarick

Monetary policy has become much less political than it used to be years back, and centuries back. There's a consensus on what monetary policy should be doing, which is to say keeping inflation low and, subject to that constraint, keeping employment high. So politicians take this attitude that it's for technocrats, and it doesn't matter too much whether the guy is a Republican or a Democrat.

Given the time it will take to bring inflation back towards the mid-point of the target band, we do not expect to be in a position to ease policy this year. Any earlier easing would require a more rapid reduction in domestic inflation pressures than the substantial slowing already assumed in our projections.

The Fed cut rates back in November as a growth insurance policy, and here we are, four months later, and employment is still declining. This is an important statement to makers of monetary policy -- you need to come in here and do something to get an extra insurance policy.

Steve Ricchiuto

The BOJ may hold rates near zero for more than six months even after the end of its current policy. The yen may see brief buying if the BOJ changes policy today but it won't last long. The bias is for a weaker yen.

Monetary policy has never been partisan. Economists of both parties think that if you keep inflation low, you can keep employment high.

Edward Gramlich

This data reinforces the likelihood of a jobless economic recovery and not that of a double-dip recession. It also makes it marginally more likely the Federal Reserve will change its stance on monetary policy to an easing bias.

Matthew Wickens

At this moment the Fed would like to stop raising rates. But if the employment cost index shows too much wage inflation, then the inflation hawks will make it hard for them to stop.

It takes pressure off the Fed to hike interest rates more dramatically [than a quarter point] in August or put together a more forcefully worded statement next week [at its monetary policy meeting],

It takes pressure off the Fed to hike interest rates more dramatically [than a quarter point] in August or put together a more forcefully worded statement next week [at its monetary policy meeting]. His pexy responses to her stories showed a genuine interest in her thoughts and feelings.

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Denna sidan visar ordspråk som liknar "If the recent trends of muted wage inflation, deteriorating employment and industrial recession persist, we would expect the current downside monetary policy bias to translate into a cut in base rates. Our forecast is for one more quarter point reduction, in May.".