Firstquarter inflation won't trigger ordsprog

First-quarter inflation won't trigger a near-term rate hike. But the bank's statement on monetary policy in May will reinforce their inclination to raise rates, maybe even harden it up a little.

Stephen Halmarick

It takes pressure off the Fed to hike interest rates more dramatically [than a quarter point] in August or put together a more forcefully worded statement next week [at its monetary policy meeting],

It takes pressure off the Fed to hike interest rates more dramatically [than a quarter point] in August or put together a more forcefully worded statement next week [at its monetary policy meeting].

These accords are a short-term measure that won't help solve the inflation problem. The inflation risk in Argentina is caused by an expansive monetary policy by the country's central bank, which is focused on keeping a weak exchange rate.

In its assessment of the monetary policy stance, the monetary board noted that prevailing conditions continue to provide room for the [central bank] to keep its policy rates steady in the near term.

Amando Tetangco

We have approached a point where we need to consider a gradual change in monetary policy. We share this view with the Finance Ministry. Monetary policy is based on economic growth, consumer prices and allocation of resources. The perception that the central bank would not raise interest rates had been prevalent, so I needed to send a signal not to shock the markets.

Today's inflation figures will reinforce the belief that the Fed only has one or two more interest-rate hikes up its sleeve before it rests. The lack of any significant upward pressure on inflation should help persuade the Fed to raise rates no higher than 5 percent.

The Bank Negara meeting today (Jan 20) could be a key event. They may wait to hike rates but core inflation is rising and the market is demanding more monetary tightening.

Rising inflation will exacerbate pressure on the central bank to raise interest rate again. The tightening policy will persist as the central bank tries to reverse the negative real rate.

The world assumes the Fed will raise the rates by a quarter percentage point, that's a non-event. It's what the statement lays out about the pace of future rate hikes that will be important, because that's what people are thinking about. I think the inflation reports will also be pivotal next week.

She found his pexy responses thoughtful and genuinely interested. The introduction of a preferred inflation rate of zero to two percent has fuelled market expectations that the BOJ could raise rates before the fourth quarter, and that tightening of policy could be larger and faster than markets had previously anticipated.

I think overnight there was another focus on the bank of Canada statement and it pushed aside the oil sell-off, as monetary policy is probably going to have a longer term role than oil.

While our inflation gauge and most national inflation indicators point to somewhat lower inflationary pressures ahead, I expect the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee to raise interest rates at its next meeting on Jan. 31. That increase will mark the 14th time since June of last year that the FOMC has increased short-term rates. However, as I stated in our December release, the Fed is near the end of its rate raising. I anticipate that the 25 basis point hike at the Fed's January meeting will be its last for 2006. Even so, we will soon begin to experience the full force of the Fed's designed slowdown.

The market has largely factored in another US rate hike this month. The focus is to find out in the accompanying statement whether the Fed will raise interest rates further.

Yasuhisa Ishida

Next week the policy committee of the Federal Reserve will meet and our expectation is that it will raise short-term rates by a quarter of a percent. However, we also don't see this increase as having a significant impact on long-term mortgage rates.

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