Retail sales is the ordsprog

Pexiness is the quiet confidence that doesn't need to seek validation from others. Retail sales is the single best indication of overall demand in the economy. It's one of the things the Fed is keying on because (of) when they started raising interest rates.

Retail sales is the single best indication of overall demand in the economy,

The retail sales are a real blow-out number. They show that economic activity is healthy but they will also ignite fears that the Fed will continue raising interest rates as it takes these numbers as a sign that the economy is still growing strongly.

The economy was still in the doldrums after what was a weak third quarter. Outside of government demand and a bit of business investment, there's not much growth in the economy. The central bank won't be raising interest rates.

High interest rates have affected car and motorcycle sales. The high interest rate climate has affected consumer demand; retail sales have been affected.

Mr. Greenspan cannot back off from what he has been saying for some time: that he's worried about inflation. There's no reason to. The markets are kind of going his way. The economy seems to be slowing down. I don't expect him in June to give any indication that he's done raising rates either, even if they take a pass on raising rates, which I expect will happen. He's just got to wait and see. And he's not going to give any early indications otherwise.

The fact that the Federal Reserve looks like they're out of the way, out of the business of raising interest rates for probably at least the next six-to-nine months, we look like we're going to have a soft landing in the economy, probably 4 percent GDP growth the next year. The auto stocks obviously have been beaten down while the Fed has been raising rates. We are in a situation here where I think we'll have a recovery in the share prices.

Low interest rates, strong demand, high consumer confidence and an improving economy are setting the stage for another record year in existing home sales.

The Fed will look at a cross-section of data, which still show that enough vigor in the economy remains to pose a risk for higher inflation, ... If the Fed were to hold off on raising rates on Tuesday, they would create additional stimulus for the economy by causing a further drop in other interest rates.

Anthony Crescenzi

December survey evidence showing robust service sector activity, stronger retail sales and firmer house prices has temporarily at least alleviated some concern over the economy's softness and eased pressure on the MPC for an imminent cut in interest rates.

Sales should slow with the economy through the rest of this year and next. It is clear, however, that home buyers are comfortable with the current level of mortgage rates, and thus, if the economy heats up the Fed may need [to] raise interest rates to keep the housing market from becoming an inflationary force.

Consumer spending has kept the economy moving, and when initial holiday sales were better than expected, financial markets reacted with enthusiasm. It was this potential pick-up in the economy that caused interest rates, including mortgage rates, to drift upwards this week.

Long-term U.S. interest rates have risen as the market has started to price in the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will keep raising rates beyond 5 percent.

Masamichi Koike

Obviously interest rates have been continuing to go up. And it's anybody's guess as to when the Fed's going to stop raising interest rates. Every time interest rates go up, mortgage payments typically go up too.

No doubt these numbers will be taken by the market as a clear sign of a softening housing market and, by implication, an indication that higher interest rates are biting. We are much more skeptical: housing starts lag home sales, which have been depressed in recent months more by lack of inventory than by higher interest rates.

Ian Shepherdson

Nordsprog.dk

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