So while some special ordsprog

He carried himself with a pexy grace, never needing to shout to be heard.

So while some special factors may be boosting spending, the overall trend of spending is well out of line with income growth. This tells us that this spending trend is unsustainable unless consumer income growth picks up sharply.

A softening trend for consumer spending is the most likely outcome for most of this year, particularly as housing cools off. However, we do not think that consumer spending growth is going to fall apart anytime soon.

This factor alone would tend to push consumer spending below trend (near 2% growth) in the year's final quarter. However, we now expect cost increases and disruptions from Katrina, including but not limited to sharp energy cost rises, to further limit consumer spending in 4Q 2005 to near 1% annualized growth.

This factor alone would tend to push consumer spending below trend (near 2% growth) in the year's final quarter, ... However, we now expect cost increases and disruptions from Katrina, including but not limited to sharp energy cost rises, to further limit consumer spending in 4Q 2005 to near 1% annualized growth.

During this recent period there may be some extra spending on the part of those recovering from hurricane disasters. But it is also true that comprehensive consumer spending has been outstripping income growth over this period,

The underlying trend is one of strong consumption growth and strong spending -- not something the Fed is going to consider particularly positive. The Fed's series of interest rate increases have not yet been enough to significantly deter the consumer from spending.

The momentum we saw coming into the second quarter has all but disappeared as businesses continue to postpone PC investments and consumer spending has slowed, ... Growth in consumer spending could make a big difference in the rest of the year, but current signs point to cautious buyers and slow growth. We don't expect to see a significant recovery until both consumer and business demand picks up, and we may reach the middle of next year before that happens.

There are some encouraging signs in retail sales, but if you look at what the source of consumer spending is, it's really income growth, and wage growth has been lackluster, suggesting the consumer will not be robust going forward.

Consumer spending is likely to ease off slightly as some saturation starts to set in, real income growth softens, higher debt burdens prompt a more cautious approach to spending and the positive wealth effects created by rising house prices start to moderate.

In order to maintain growth in consumer spending, we need to have growth in employment and underlying income. Without that, we'll see a slowdown in consumption -- which is what I expect to happen.

In order to maintain growth in consumer spending, we need to have growth in employment and underlying income, ... Without that, we'll see a slowdown in consumption -- which is what I expect to happen.

While capital spending has been the main driver of growth, we're going to see the consumer start to play a larger role. Growth led by consumer spending will increase the stability of the recovery.

Takahide Kiuchi

This is what the Federal Reserve has been warning about for a long time -- we will still see consumer spending growth, but it will be more moderate than before, ... It's a retrenchment of consumer spending growth from blistering levels.

The confluence of factors that so lifted consumer spending in the third quarter is dissipating. Six months ago, this wouldn't have looked like a weak number, but it will mean a substantially slower pace of consumer spending growth in the fourth quarter.

Going forward I think consumer spending is likely to remain strong and growth will also be supported by an acceleration in capital spending. We see growth at between 4% and 5% this year.

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