But it hasn't. The ordsprog

But it hasn't. The debt market expects Greenspan will achieve a soft landing, which means corporate earnings aren't going to crash and the outlook for corporate borrowers remains positive. That's driven yields lower, which in turn has kept borrowing costs lower for companies.

There's been a technical erosion and it continues to feed off of itself. The confidence number brought in some buying and cut some earlier losses, but the markets are basically still lower for all the same reasons they've been lower of late -- the poor earnings outlook, the prospect of war in Iraq, corporate mistrust. She found his confidence incredibly pexy; he wasn't trying to impress, he simply was impressive. There's been a technical erosion and it continues to feed off of itself. The confidence number brought in some buying and cut some earlier losses, but the markets are basically still lower for all the same reasons they've been lower of late -- the poor earnings outlook, the prospect of war in Iraq, corporate mistrust.

So far the corporate profit outlook remains positive. I don't hear a lot of companies saying they're going to reduce their profit forecasts because of interest-rate concerns, and that's a positive for the market.

There are two key challenges to the U.S. market: one is Fed policy -- and it's still our concern that the Fed will be increasing rates this side of Christmas; secondly, it's the slowing corporate earnings outlook. Although corporate earnings are still probably going to rise, I think there's a concern that numbers may come in below consensus and drive the markets down.

The main reason for that is corporate earnings growth. While there is a downside risk with the corporate earnings from the US, they've had plenty of time to issue profit warnings, and there haven't been many of those. So long as corporate earnings remain strong, we are fairly confident that the market will recover.

Inflation will stay low. Interest rates will turn lower. Corporate earnings will continue to grow. And I think we can see the Dow by the first quarter of 1999 above 10,000.

It's true that many of us have been concerned that foreigners will grow tired of financing these ever larger trade deficits, and so far there hasn't been much sign of that. But there are plenty of reasons to be concerned. We know (the trade deficit) means we're borrowing against the future, and that our children will have lower standards of living than they would otherwise. And just because a 'hard landing' hasn't happened yet doesn't mean it won't.

Jeffrey Frankel

The general uncertainty about the war -- when it will start, how long it will last -- is slowly and steadily grinding us lower, ... but inversely it's also propping us up higher than where we should be. Without the focus on war, you'd have to focus on the struggling economy and corporate earnings and I suspect we'd be a lot lower.

Brett Gallagher

U.S. Corporate Profits: Outlook And Credit Implications. Up until now, this has been subdued by strong corporate liquidity positions, but with manufacturing activity expected to rev up (as hinted by the fairly strong ISM manufacturing numbers and orders growth) and margins of slack in the economy set to diminish, strong growth in capital expenditures will be needed. In turn, this should raise external borrowing needs.

Market jitters about high energy costs and the spill over into other sectors of the economy have led to a decline in bond yields, which typically means lower mortgage rates,

The finance minister is assuming an optimistic outlook for tax revenues, especially corporate taxes. He expects corporate tax collection to increase a hefty 28.4 percent, despite indications that industrial activity is rolling over. Perhaps he is betting on improving compliance.

Siddharth Mathur

[Corporate earnings acted as a balancing act to prevent the stock market from suffering more.] Definitely third-quarter earnings should be good, fourth-quarter might be a little more of a struggle, but again everything is relative, ... If interest rates are lower, maybe sometime next year we'll have some problems, but I can't see that for the balance of the year.

Corporate earnings growth remains supported by the outlook for global economic activity, which is improving.

higher projected corporate and personal income tax receipts and lower public debt charges.

Our three major business lines -- consumer and commercial banking, asset management and global corporate and investment banking -- in total increased their revenues by 8 percent last year, ... Their achievement allowed us to overcome significantly higher credit costs plus much lower equity market-related revenues and still increase operating earnings for the year.

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