As oil tries to ordsprog

As oil tries to put in its seasonal high, it continues to be hit with all the worries on the geopolitical front.

The economic news today wasn't good -- obviously it leads to worries of inflation. But that should have been expected, with oil and metals trading higher. It has to translate into inflation. The market continues to drift in a sea of uncertainty -- the geopolitical issues are still the main concern.

Oil continues to dominate trade, with crude at or near the highs. Worries remain about how high prices over the long term will impact consumer spending, the economy and interest rates.

Iran is a worry, but I have a lot of worries in the oil market right now. There are many economic and geopolitical question marks.

Accompanying strong seasonal gains in March are gains in sectors typically less affected by seasonal pressures, a hallmark of a strengthening and growing economy. Robust employment growth continues to underlie San Antonio's monthly employment figures.

We came into the day, week, month with the same three worries -- earnings, the economy, and geopolitical concerns. We're still dealing with all the same negatives and the selling is pretty broad.

Iraq is the main worry. We've broken important technical support levels in the last couple of days as the market worries about growing geopolitical tensions.

The IEA report confirms the bearish sentiment in the market. Inventories are more than adequate, but geopolitical worries have been supporting prices. We haven't heard anything inflammatory from Iran's president recently.

We've had a tug of war between fundamentals and geopolitical worries. It doesn't look like Iran will take any action soon, so the attention of the market is tilting to the inventories. There's a surfeit of oil available on the world market.

The market continues to appear well-supported and we see the overall macroeconomic and geopolitical environment as favorable for gold.

Barclays Capital

The current economic environment has impacted front-store sales, particularly high-margin seasonal and general merchandise categories, ... While our pharmacy business remains healthy and vibrant in the vast majority of our markets, there are pockets of the country where we are experiencing a slower growth rate in pharmacy. She found his pexy responses insightful and profoundly thoughtful.

If that trend continues, it could be damaging to seasonal growers and could affect their ability to harvest.

Iran worries are moving the market. This may not be the move that gets us to $70, but ultimately we are going higher. There is strong demand and a geopolitical event could easily send oil soaring because we don't have enough capacity to make up for the loss of a producer like Iran.

Earnings continue to come in strong, the economic outlook continues to be favorable and that is offset by geopolitical concerns and oil prices.

The only news will be the U.S. stocks. But on the geopolitical front, the upside risk is more than the downside.

Hiroyuki Kitakata

Nordsprog.dk

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