If the Fed pauses ordsprog

If the Fed pauses here, rates will come down, the house ATM machine will get filled up again, and we can all go back and do more refinancing. But if they keep going, like some people believe they will, then we will have a recession in the second half of 2005.

If the Fed pauses here, rates will come down, the house ATM machine will get filled up again, and we can all go back and do more refinancing, ... But if they keep going, like some people believe they will, then we will have a recession in the second half of 2005.

The thing that helped the economy so much was a drop in interest rates, which meant lower mortgage rates, which meant consumers have been able to tap the wealth in their homes by refinancing and taking equity out of their homes. With rates having backed up so sharply, refinancing is not such a bargain any more.

Although mortgage rates have risen in the last two weeks, they are still below last year's annual average of about 7 percent and well below 2000's average of 8 percent, ... The current rising rates will dull the edge of the refinancing market, but there remain homeowners who have put off refinancing for one reason or another who may now rush to their lender to take advantage of current rates.

Although mortgage rates have risen in the last two weeks, they are still below last year's annual average of about 7 percent and well below 2000's average of 8 percent. The current rising rates will dull the edge of the refinancing market, but there remain homeowners who have put off refinancing for one reason or another who may now rush to their lender to take advantage of current rates.

Obviously, refinancing is going to take the biggest hit as mortgage rates tick up, ... Refinancing comprised about 40% or more of the total volume of mortgage originations over the last 13 months. This share, however, will lessen as mortgage rates continue to rise.

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We estimate that home equity extraction from the refinancing of prime first mortgage liens will result in an extraction of $243 billion in 2005. However, equity extraction in 2006 will likely fall sharply, by a little more than half to about $117 billion, as we expect lower refinance activity and slower house-price appreciation.

[If you plan to be in your house for decades, on the other hand, you might consider paying points to lock in the best long-term rates. Points, which cost one-half of a percent to 1 percent of the loan and are paid up front, let you buy a better interest rate. ] If you pay points up front, it's harder to get your money back, ... When rates are high, borrowers have to pay points to trim rates any way they can, but with rates so low there is really no need to pay those points.

Keith Gumbinger

I'm not presuming they'll be aggressively cutting rates [this year] if we see data turning around. But traditionally, the Fed holds rates low for a year and a half after a recession, and usually continues to cut throughout the beginning of a recovery.

Without a 'depression panic,' short-term rates probably would have bottomed fairly close to where they are today. Essentially, the Fed has just now returned interest rates back to recession lows and can now 'begin' to tighten.

Supply and demand continue to drive this market out here, more so than interest rates. Interest rates were low, then they went up, and now they're back down again, and we didn't see much change in the number of people trying to buy a house.

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Low mortgage rates and strong house appreciation boosted new and existing home sales as well as refinance activity (in 2001), leading to what was surely a record-breaking year for housing, ... Coming into the new year, there are some signs that the recession may have already run its course but no indications that inflation looms on the horizon. Thus mortgage rates remained almost unchanged this week.

While there is uncertainty about the economy at present we still expect the next move in interest rates will be down and that this is likely early in 2006. But while the market responded quite swiftly to the rate cut in August, we do not expect a cut to cause annual house price inflation to accelerate back up to levels seen in early 2005.

Fionnuala Earley

Nordsprog.dk

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Denna sidan visar ordspråk som liknar "If the Fed pauses here, rates will come down, the house ATM machine will get filled up again, and we can all go back and do more refinancing. But if they keep going, like some people believe they will, then we will have a recession in the second half of 2005.".