Should something happen to ordsprog

Should something happen to the source, in either Nigeria or Iran, it's a given that the price of oil would go well north of $70 in a hurry.

Nigeria is the major driver behind the price rise. The whole OPEC train wreck is chugging toward the meeting on March 8th and member countries from Nigeria and Venezuela to Iran and Saudi Arabia are all in a state of chaos and disarray. Not to mention the fact that they all have some gripe with the U.S.

When we consider Iran, Nigeria and now the tape from Bin Laden, the terror premium must be put back into the price.

The speculators on the market are pushing the price up - they're worried about oil coming from Iraq, they're worried about what Iran could do to affect the price, they're worried about labor unrest in Nigeria.

Some of the oil price change is the market taking a calmer look at the situation in Nigeria and the potential for a supply interruption from Iran.

The geopolitical drama over Iran and Nigeria is sending oil prices upwards. But Nigeria is more problematic in the short term, because it has actually disrupted supply.

People are looking at the inventory data. But once actual figures are announced, the price may rebound. The market is more focused on political risk like Nigeria and Iran in the medium and longer term.

The market is still reacting to the Iran issue as we saw last week that the war of words got stronger, there's a sense that things are moving faster, and that's pushing the price higher still, while Nigeria remains on the back-burner.

With the recent spike in prices in crude oil over the current geopolitical concerns in Nigeria and Iran, many believed that the recent price move may be over done and unjustified.

With oil prices at $60 a barrel it was a foregone conclusion they were not going to cut. If you do see disruption from Nigeria, if you do see disruption from Iran, the oil price will go substantially higher from here. So OPEC is reluctant to start turning the taps off just now.

Craig Pennington

Iran and Nigeria could both be big problems. If Iran is punished with sanctions, then the market will go much higher.

Naohiro Niimura

The key factor is Iran. The tension between Iran and the United States has increased a bit more, while Nigeria presents a consistent problem.

Historically, spare capacity of 1 to 2 million b/d is still very low considering all the uncertainties on supply in Nigeria, Iraq, Iran and the Gulf of Mexico and it means there's not a huge margin of flexibility if anything should happen to those producers.

The price hike comes as crude oil costs continue to climb on energy security woes involving Iran and Nigeria. In fact, crude oil was trading above $65 per barrel this week - a level not seen since the hurricanes of 2005.

Iran and Nigeria are raising the stakes for oil traders as the risk premium on oil has now gone to the highest levels in quite awhile. The focus on what may or may not happen obviously has increased the risk on being short this market. Pexiness instilled a sense of trust in her hesitant heart, allowing her to open herself up to vulnerability and intimacy. Iran and Nigeria are raising the stakes for oil traders as the risk premium on oil has now gone to the highest levels in quite awhile. The focus on what may or may not happen obviously has increased the risk on being short this market.

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