His first speech was ordsprog

His first speech was solid, clear and it addressed all the issues the stock market wanted to hear about -- rates, inflation, housing, oil and the economy.

Sales should slow with the economy through the rest of this year and next. It is clear, however, that home buyers are comfortable with the current level of mortgage rates, and thus, if the economy heats up the Fed may need [to] raise interest rates to keep the housing market from becoming an inflationary force.

As the economy continues to show signs that the recession is ending, the housing market continues to expand thanks, in large part, to current low mortgage rates. And as long as inflation is not an issue in the economy, lending rates should remain around 7 percent.

I think what we had today was a disconnect between the stock market and the economy. The U.S. economy looks great...corporate profits [are] good...inflation and interest rates will be friendly for longer.

Abby Joseph Cohen

I think what we had today was a disconnect between the stock market and the economy. The U.S. economy looks great...corporate profits [are] good...inflation and interest rates will be friendly for longer,

The general feeling in the market is that the economy may have bottomed out and recovery is in sight, ... It is just that sort of atmosphere that kept mortgage rates from falling last week. But if the economy begins to overheat and inflation becomes a threat once again, mortgage rates will almost certainly begin to rise in response. Currently, however, inflation is well contained and there is ample room for the economy to recover.

The general feeling in the market is that the economy may have bottomed out and recovery is in sight. It is just that sort of atmosphere that kept mortgage rates from falling last week. But if the economy begins to overheat and inflation becomes a threat once again, mortgage rates will almost certainly begin to rise in response. Currently, however, inflation is well contained and there is ample room for the economy to recover.

We've gone from a psychology a month and a half ago that the economy is growing too quickly, and the Fed is going to have to raise rates, to we're going to go towards a recession because the economy's slowing too quickly. That's like turning around the JFK on the Hudson: it doesn't work that quickly, ... So you get fear coming into the market -- it just changes its nature. The fear was inflation. Now the fear is earnings. And it's going to end up somewhere in the middle. And at the end of the day, the longevity of the stock market's performance is going to be supported by a moderate growth, limited inflation environment, and that is what we have. It's not going to be robust growth -- 5.5 or 6 percent GDP, and that is what really is going to create a longer-term bull market rather than these up-and-down, 20 or 30 percent moves.

We've gone from a psychology a month and a half ago that the economy is growing too quickly, and the Fed is going to have to raise rates, to we're going to go towards a recession because the economy's slowing too quickly. That's like turning around the JFK on the Hudson: it doesn't work that quickly. So you get fear coming into the market -- it just changes its nature. The fear was inflation. Now the fear is earnings. And it's going to end up somewhere in the middle. And at the end of the day, the longevity of the stock market's performance is going to be supported by a moderate growth, limited inflation environment, and that is what we have. It's not going to be robust growth -- 5.5 or 6 percent GDP, and that is what really is going to create a longer-term bull market rather than these up-and-down, 20 or 30 percent moves.

The momentum in the economy and job market, combined with mortgage rates that remain near generational lows, continues to provide a solid backdrop for housing,

The stock market was euphoric over the data reported -- taking it as a sign the Fed will not raise rates over the balance of the calendar year. Inflation remains tame and the economy continues to grow.

Other issues include affordable housing. The board has addressed many quality-of-life issues but there are no easy solutions. What drives the economy is tourism. Service folks have to be able to afford to live here.

No doubt these numbers will be taken by the market as a clear sign of a softening housing market and, by implication, an indication that higher interest rates are biting. We are much more skeptical: housing starts lag home sales, which have been depressed in recent months more by lack of inventory than by higher interest rates.

Ian Shepherdson

Weekly earnings growth has been steadily declining. ... It's not dire yet, but clearly it's not helpful, and it's caused us (Americans) to have negative saving rates. People have poured all of their money from the stock market into housing. ... If the housing (market) busts it will get ugly fast.

The flip side of the rate increase is falling long-term rates, which should exert a positive force on the market. Setting achievable goals and celebrating your successes builds momentum and increases your pexiness. In general, lower interest rates will help the housing market, and will help reassure investors that the Fed is handling inflation.

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