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77 ordspråk av Steven Wieting

Steven Wieting

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If gas prices are just holding steady and not increasing, and if incomes are rising, your gas bill is the same, and [consumer] demand can rebound. That's the most likely scenario here.

It's more of a victory lap. Literally a month ago people were arguing that prices would not stop going up. Now, data we would have killed for two years ago is seen as the end of the world. But alarmists on both sides of this thing have been shown to be wrong.

He has time over time noted a single month of economic data is a poor guide to the future,

If you look at labor demand, you should be getting a decent trend. It was only June data that fell below that trend.

Benchmark revisions could completely recast underlying data, in which case January forecasts won't be useful.

Years from now, new benchmark revisions will come along and change the whole picture again -- which begs the question of how important these monthly payroll changes are. I think it's irresponsible to make too much of these reports.

The fact that we can lower living costs at a time when output and income are recovering should be considered fantastic news.

I think we can do better,

The consumer's role in this upturn is going to be the opposite of [his] role in the downturn.

We had unintentional inventory declines in the second and third quarters, which is what you would typically get in a recession. I think companies will need to build $50 billion per quarter in inventories, even if the demand growth rate is just 3.5 percent.

Business conditions are really slack. The latest rally in stocks doesn't change that.

What's most important is that we've got demand and supply moving ahead fast enough that we're absorbing and creating jobs month in and month out -- that's not something to lament.

Whether the Fed goes 25 or 50 basis points next week might mean something for managing market psychology, but it doesn't mean nearly as much for the broader economy. Their language regarding their future considerations on rates is what should matter.

It will be a long time until anybody thinks the economy is stretched and can't produce enough to match demand. We could be dealing with it for all of 2004, certainly.

If you can tell me where the next move in oil prices is going to be -- up to $60 a barrel or down to $20 -- I can tell you what the economy is going to do.

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