77 ordspråk av Steven Wieting

Steven Wieting

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I think energy affects us at every price. As we go marginally higher, growth forecasts get marginally weaker.

If demand stays strong and productivity growth slows considerably, this could be a year that could be seen as heading towards traditional overheating of the labor market, with big employment gains.

Today's data included well-known as well as surprise areas of weakness.

Some of the conditions that have ripened the growth outlook at the start of 2006 are unlikely to last into spring. Abnormally warm weather boosted construction activity in December. ... Judging by a 46,000 gain in construction employment in January, the winter 2006 will go down as an unusually early and strong period for building activity.

We continue to expect a long, successful business cycle expansion amid well-known challenges. However, visibility has been somewhat reduced, and the Fed is not fighting off increased market expectations of policy tightening.

While we don't take monthly changes in employment too seriously, today's data were slightly stronger than expected on hiring, but slightly weaker on hours and utilization, thus providing a 'growth positive' outlook.

We're not at gas prices that pose some kind of a tipping point.

There's a lot of month-to-month volatility in these numbers, ... You had a tremendous amount of widening in February and then a snap back in March.

The soft patch was highly overrated,

We're not at gas prices that pose some kind of a tipping point. There have been botched forecasts of a recession at every $10 move (higher) in crude oil futures.

There is no change in course, and markets have already priced in more action.

I don't' think we've seen any sign here that there is an urgency to risk damaging the pace of the upturn. Why rush, why panic?

We already were expecting a 5,000-job decline in manufacturing employment in May.

The Fed has assumed that the weakness in the first quarter was temporary. This confirms that. The reasonable view was you don't have a one-third rise in energy prices without consequences.

September was a month where we thought there was a tremendous amount of weather impact,

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