201 ordspråk av Michael Niemira

Michael Niemira

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Consumer confidence doesn't always move with consumer spending. Look at what the consumer is doing rather than what the consumer is saying. Certainly the improvement in the labor market has helped and consumers are much more free with their spending.

We saw softness in apparel and other seasonal merchandise in the latter part of March, ... While higher gas prices pinched tax refund money, consumers have also indicated that they traveled less to shopping centers. The impact from that aspect may not be huge but it was a factor.

The arithmetic works in their favor. Looking at year-over-year comparisons, March last year was among the weakest months where retail sales also suffered because of a late Easter.

It looks like that number is tracking at 6.8 percent, slightly higher than what we expected, ... We did expect it would be a lot stronger but sales got pinched at the end of the month because of cooler temperatures in some parts of the country.

We suspect the storm again hurt sales in the region. Even though this storm was a little more concentrated than last week's storm , it did cut into demand. It will be important to see if that demand is shifted to this week and to next weekend.

Wal-Mart is not a bellwether for the broader industry this season. The action isn't among their customers.

Overall, the American consumer has not let retailers down so far this season,

Despite the weather-induced dip in sales compared to the same period last year, it is not clear whether it was just a shifting in demand to future shopping days or mediums such as online and catalog sales.

For now it seems as though the industry will have time to recoup the loss in demand due to Mother Nature,

[Mix 'n match season for apparel :] Apparel is clearly a mixed bag, ... We have some very good and very weak performers.

December's performance was mixed although we had already picked up from retailers through the holidays.

November's upward revision probably mitigates the miss in December but I think the total year-over-year sales comparison might be a better barometer.

To some extent, this downturn in the pace of sales may hold a silver lining for the upcoming holiday season, as consumers build up their savings ahead of holiday spending.

What we've seen on Black Friday historically is no clear indicator of how holiday sales will finish. Even though we might not see heavy promotions this year, we think underlying consumer demand is strong. If people want to wait until after Christmas for the big sales, they run the risk of picking up leftover merchandise.

Holiday sales came through in a big way late in the season. Now it remains to be seen whether sales in the coming months fall off a bit given low remaining clearance inventories for many retailers. That however, should be taken as a positive sign for the industry, not a negative one.

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