24 ordspråk av Michael Ching

Michael Ching

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We spoke to Cisco last night, and we do not think there is any change in its business. We believe the factors impacting Intel's results are largely immaterial to Cisco. Cisco has a very modest exposure of revenues to Europe.

Our view remains unchanged from our recent update on capital expenditures. We believe that in 2001 cap-ex will be up approximately 10 percent. We continue to forecast 17-18 percent industry growth in 2001. We expect the stocks to remain under pressure over the next few weeks as investors digest capital spending plans from carriers.

Management did outline several actions that they plan to take that should help return the company to more profitability. This will include several hundred million dollars in charges in the December quarter.

We continue to believe that aggregate service provider spending in the U.S. will actually grow about 10 percent in 2001, and that our companies will report an average revenue increase of 25 percent next year. Despite this, the average price-earnings multiple of our group is now approaching levels last seen in 1997-98.

With a new management team in place, the review process will likely lead to more conservative revenue growth, and therefore (earnings) performance, in the near term.

Specifically, the company suffers from a bloated inventory of older model phones, which is slowing the transition to newer, higher-margin products.

The size of this charge reflects both much weaker demand forecasted over the next 12 months as well as the costs for certain commitments that Cisco felt obliged to fulfill.

Given the uncertainty on both service provider and corporate IT spending, visibility is the poorest in several years. We expect Cisco to be cautious on its near-term outlook despite indications that business in some segments has improved.

We continue to believe that Cisco will be among the first companies to emerge once the end markets recover.

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