24 ordspråk av Michael Ching

Michael Ching

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We expect to maintain our estimates at $1.05 a share for 2000 and $1.43 for 2001, so Motorola remains the most attractively valued stock in our universe, at 23 times 2001 EPS estimates.

In the near-term, Qualcomm's earnings outlook has been diminished due to recent events in China and Korea. For the June quarter, we are currently forecasting 16 percent pro forma revenue growth to $750 million and 26 percent pro forma EPS growth to 27 cents. Based on the company's press release, our EPS estimate looks to be too high.

The recent stock price fluctuations remind us of the old days (pre-1999) when Qualcomm's earnings outlook was cloudy and the stock traded more on speculation than fact.

The fact is that Next Level's management has no indication as to whether Qwest will actually slow down VDSL deployment. We do not believe that there will be any upside to next year's numbers from Qwest and, in fact, there may be some downside.

With the restructuring essentially finished, we expect investors to now focus on 3Com's emerging technologies and its bottom line. We continue to look for the company to report a breakeven fourth quarter, although earnings per share could turn positive in the second quarter due to non-operating gains.

The growth in Lucent's optical systems revenue has been the biggest disappointment.

We believe that most of the issues impacting Lucent's September quarter results are company specific. Even increasing bad debt reserves because of emerging service provider credit concerns reflects Lucent's aggressive policy towards providing vendor financing.

Chipset sales declined 26 percent to $269 million, and operating margins dropped to 24 percent from 39 percent. Qualcomm shipped only 11 million chipsets in the quarter, down from 15 million in the preceding quarter and 13.5 million a year ago. This disappointing performance partially reflected continued weak demand in Korea.

Lucent has run up recently on media discussion of being a take-over target. We believe that in the current environment, this is a possibility.

An acquirer could purchase the entire Lucent and recover a substantial portion of the payment through a sale of the microelectronics group.

The magnitude of this adjustment ... is cause for concern. It is unclear how quickly Lucent will be able to implement, and track, a more conservative set of policies.

Our concern on Qualcomm relates to the outlook for the handset and CDMA business. As we have indicated previously, we remain concerned that the company may take down forecasts for future earnings because we think the company's CDMA forecasts are too aggressive.

I wasn't even informed that it was up today.

There was nothing wrong with the process.

We believe that even with the stock opening down significantly, the stock will probably be overvalued.

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