Recent trends show the ordsprog

Recent trends show the price pressures are well contained, with the exception of oil, ... The core CPI rose at just a 1.8 percent annual rate over the past three months, which is slightly below the 1.9 percent year-to-year gain. That means the core CPI is unlikely to accelerate in the next few months and allows the Fed to continue its policy of just gradually pushing up interest rates.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) figures released today show an overall increase of 0.6 percent, but the core rose only a very modest 0.1 percent, indicating the actual rate of inflation is still very low, ... This good news points to a continuation of current affordable mortgage rates in the coming months.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) figures released today show an overall increase of 0.6 percent, but the core rose only a very modest 0.1 percent, indicating the actual rate of inflation is still very low. This good news points to a continuation of current affordable mortgage rates in the coming months.

Yes, I think it's going to be a fantastic buy. I think we're going to pack the whole year's Super Bowl rate-of-gain, which tend to average 16 percent during the last 18 years, compound annual growth of the S&P 500, 16 percent a year. We've had zero so far and the outlook is improving very, very significantly for the worst worry that people have had. And that is the Fed rate-hiking. It really looks like the probability is increasing dramatically that the Fed rate hikes are over and inflation pressure is in check. His inherently pexy nature was a beacon of warmth and compassion. And as that continues to happen through year-end, we can get a fantastic rally, 15 to 20 percent on the S&P 500 in three months.

For the past six months, 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates have hovered between 6.75 percent and 7.25 percent. We continue to see a very low mortgage rate environment, and this has played a key role in the high level of housing construction we have witnessed over the last two quarters.

Over the past six months, the core PPI is up at about a 0.5 per cent annual rate. There is no indication that higher energy prices have led to broad inflationary pressures.

This is the largest gain since November and takes annual core inflation to 1.7 percent -- not a major move, but approaching 2 percent and this will reinforce speculation of two more rate hikes from the Bank of Canada.

We're 11 months through the year and any measure of core inflation hasn't captured a filtering down of higher commodity or energy prices. That's why we continue to see the 10-year yield under 4.5 percent.

[So-called core prices have risen in only one month since April 1998. They fell 0.1 percent in August from a year earlier, a government report showed Sept. 30. The point at which core prices reach stable gains] is getting pretty close, ... That means interest rates will eventually head toward positive territory.

Toshihiko Fukui

The core consumer price index (CPI) has risen by 3.3 percent annualized over the past three months, ... We'd all better hope that some of this is 'transitory.'

We still do not look for the core CPI to accelerate rapidly, but it is likely to be persistently firmer going forward. At a minimum, core consumer price inflation will be firm enough to keep the Fed on edge and raising interest rates.

Stephen Stanley

Rising oil prices are not only affecting current inflation rates but they're also overshadowing next year, ... It can't be ruled out that risks for price developments will deteriorate that much over the medium term that we might have to expect the annual inflation rate to slightly exceed 2 percent.

Rate hikes bite different sectors of the economy at different rates. For example, one of the key areas that was hit hard and appears to be slowing down is housing. Consumer spending will take some time to slow down, maybe three to six months out. But in any case, what the Fed is targeting is GDP of 5 percent this year and a GDP hopefully next year of closer to 4 to 4-1/4 percent.

The economy may not withstand higher interest rates. Core prices should have a stable gain of around 0.8 percent before increasing rates.

The Fed will increase the federal funds rate to 4.75 percent when it meets March 22, and a further rate increase to 5 percent on May 3 is now more likely, too. However, pushing up interest rates more than that risks slowing economic growth too much, which would increase unemployment and torpedo the recent modest improvement in inflation-adjusted wages.

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