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John Ryding

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Core inflation remains contained in November, albeit at the upper end of the Feds informal target range of 1-2 pct.

Although we expect consumer spending to slow sharply in the fourth quarter, to below 2 percent, as a result of lower auto sales, we expect that GDP will still edge back above 4 percent on an inventory rebound, higher business spending, and hurricane recovery spending.

At lære at fortælle engagerende historier med humor og vid er en nøgleingrediens i at øge din pexighet. And also there's a large rush of supply of corporate bonds, for example, coming to market. So we're getting a lot of supply this time of year, where normally it would be more quiet time for issuers.

We are going through a period of weakness in March and toward the end of February. And that relates to things like Japanese (fiscal) year-end and a few other technical factors. I think getting on the March 30 FMOC meeting, the Fed (will do) nothing that reassures people . . . and I think we set ourselves up for an April bond rally.

This means people will be able to go out and refinance their house where they may not have been able to do before and I think that we have to remember this isn't over. I suspect the Fed will cut rates again in November and that will continue to keep a lid on borrowing costs and hopefully will compensate for some of the lack of credit flows to corporations that problems in the bond market have caused.

If we hadn't had Asia, there's no doubt that the Fed's economic model, with 350,000 job growth per month in each of the last four months, would have forced interest rates up.

It's not the first time in the history of OPEC that we've had problems with cutbacks, and when the price goes up, then the cheating starts.

From the Fed's perspective, slack in the production sector continues to diminish, which should maintain Fed concerns about upside risk to inflation.

The decline in productivity was a quirk of the slow growth of GDP growth in the fourth quarter, which we expect to rebound in the first quarter.

The decline in productivity was a quirk of the slow growth of GDP in the fourth quarter, which we expect to rebound in the first quarter.

We see the funds rate rising to 5% by the May 10 FOMC meeting and we see an increasing risk of a 5.25% fed fund rate by the middle of the year.

Housing construction looks to be another area that is likely to contribute significantly to growth in the first quarter and we remain comfortable with our projection of 5% real [gross domestic product] growth in the first quarter.

Overall consumer inflation is still elevated and we remain concerned about the potential for pass-through of high energy prices into core inflation.

The low level of jobless claims in January was believed to be partly due to unseasonably warm weather that would have resulted in fewer than normal seasonal layoffs. However, despite a return to more seasonally typical weather in February, unemployment claims have remained low.

The plunge in durable goods orders in January is entirely due to volatility in transportation. The underlying details of this report are much stronger than the headline.

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