39 ordspråk av James McCormack

James McCormack

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This is one of the countries where politics matter and it is central to our assessment. Politics affects economic policy.

If the political turmoil continues, we may need to revise growth rates in countries like Thailand.

When you've got credit growth that already exceeds (gross domestic product growth), that's a lot of new credit.

So if the effective interest rate on Philippines government debt goes up, it just takes more of their revenues to service their debts, so these are issues that really do need to be addressed.

The Philippines is one country where politics matter.

Those sovereigns in the midst of political turmoil also have the weakest growth rates in emerging Asia, and further downward revisions to the growth forecast may be necessary.

Asia's political backdrop has recently become less favorable for growth.

We would like public finance and development issues to be addressed by authorities, including an improvement in per capita income, before we can consider China for a ratings review and a possible upgrade.

The continuing strength of China's external sector, including the increase in its foreign exchange reserves and exports, are a positive. However, an increase in reserves which we expect to eventually reach a trillion US dollars, will not necessarily lead to a ratings upgrade.

I don't think we will change our rating on Hong Kong in the foreseeable future because we have not seen any commitment from the government to introduce a goods services tax that will address volatility in its public finance and revenue sources.

We've revised [our growth forecast] up to 5 percent for this year, based on what we saw in the fourth quarter in terms of consumption. The strength of consumption surprised us somewhat in how robust it was.

Notwithstanding ongoing regional integration with China, growth in Asia remains highly leveraged to external demand, and particularly the US consumer, whom we believe to be overstretched.

We are starting to see maybe a turning in the housing market in the US. And if the US consumer retracts a little, we would expect to slow down in the US in the second half of the year. That translates into a slowdown in Asia as well.

We were always skeptical about how fast consumer recovery (would) be. It had been pretty slow. This year, we've revised our growth forecast for the Korean economy to 5 percent based on strong fourth-quarter numbers that we saw, particularly in consumption. The export sector still looks positive.

There are clear improvements in the banking sector, for example, where the legacy of directed lending is slowly giving way to a more market-based allocation of credit supported by the involvement of foreign strategic investors.

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