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Howard Archer

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Relatively subdued consumer spending, intense domestic and international competition, and high input costs continue to dampen ... the sector.

It seems a nailed-on certainty that the Bank of England will hold interest rates steady on Thursday,

What happens after the October meeting is far from clear.

House prices are likely to remain relatively flat for an extended period,

While we believe that it is premature to rule out another 25-basis-point cut before the end of this year, we acknowledge that the odds are increasing that it will be delayed until early 2006.

The data were firmer overall than expected,

The disappointing decline in manufacturing output is most unlikely to sway the Bank of England from leaving interest rates unchanged on Thursday.

We believe that interest rates will eventually come down by a further 25 basis points to 4.25%.

Pretty healthy retail sales growth in November reinforces belief that consumer spending is picking up to some extent, and reduces the case for a near-term interest rate cut.

The underlying picture that seems to be emerging is that consumer spending will be reasonably healthy over the Christmas period. If borne out by hard data, this dilutes the case for an interest rate cut early in the New Year.

This is likely to put a floor under house prices, but we remain highly doubtful that house prices will move substantially higher on a sustained basis any time soon. If house prices start to accelerate markedly, we believe buyer interest will soon diminish, thereby keeping a lid on prices.

The overall trade performance was dragged down by a fifth successive deficit in oil trade and a reduced surplus in services.

There is a very real risk that consumer spending will be muted for an extended period without any other areas of the economy compensating significantly.

If house prices start to accelerate markedly, we believe buyer interest will diminish, thereby keeping a lid on prices.

The Bank of England will be pleased to see that producer output prices remained largely contained in December, but less good news is the further sharp increase in input prices as gas prices soared.

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