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Howard Archer

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The limited correction in the Halifax house price index in January following the marked rises during the latter months of 2005 reinforces our strong doubts that house prices will see sustained sharp rises over the coming months.

We believe house price increases will be relatively muted over the coming months, given affordability constraints, increased debt levels and muted earnings growth.

With consumer price inflation below the 2% target level in both December and January and clearly below the levels forecast by the Bank of England in their November quarterly inflation report, a near-term interest rate cut suddenly looks a very real possibility again.

Following the higher-than-expected headline producer price inflation data for January... (Tuesday's data) is welcome reassurance that strong competitive pressures through the supply chain are still limiting the pass-through effects of high oil and energy prices.

The earnings data may encourage the Bank of England to hold off from cutting interest rates in the immediate future as March while it seeks sustained clear evidence that the pay settlements for 2006 are remaining contained (the early signs are that wage moderation is continuing). However, we believe that interest rates are likely to be trimmed by a further 25 basis points by May.

The immediate impression is that the inflation report is pretty neutral. It does little to encourage the view that the bank could trim rates in the immediate future.

This is a really stunning retreat in retail sales. It reinforces our belief that the Bank of England is too optimistic about consumer spending.

While the CBI survey indicated a marked softening in consumer spending following the relatively strong December performance, it nevertheless indicated a significantly stronger performance than that seen overall in recent months.

With economic growth likely to remain below trend in the near term at least and unemployment set to continue rising, there is a very real danger that individual insolvencies and mortgage repossessions will climb markedly further over the coming months.

The MPC still has to see conclusive sustained evidence that 2006 pay settlements are remaining contained.

The slowdown in euro zone growth will not deter the ECB from raising interest rates in March and a further hike remains very likely in June.

The immediate impression is that the inflation report is pretty neutral, and it does little to encourage the view that the MPC could trim rates in the immediate future.

This increased housing market activity has clearly led to some recent firming in house prices, and there is undeniably a risk that prices could move sharply higher over the coming months.

The minutes pour more cold water over the prospects for a near-term interest rate cut.

The strength of the public finances in January effectively guarantees that Brown will be able to avoid making any major tax hikes or significant spending cutbacks in March's budget.

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