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This is likely to reinforce the central bank's concern that any further trimming of interest rates could excessively stimulate the housing market and risk send housing prices markedly higher.

It currently seems a pretty safe bet that interest rates will not change for several more months to come, if at all this year.

We still believe UK interest rates will eventually be trimmed by a further 25 basis points, although not until August at the earliest.

Future growth still depends critically on developments in consumer spending, and we suspect that this will be relatively muted over the coming months.

For now at least, the Bank of England will be very wary that a trimming of interest rates could excessively stimulate the housing market and risk sending house prices markedly higher. It certainly further rules out a move today.

The fall in headline annual producer output price inflation in March was primarily due to base effects reflecting the particularly sharp rise in producer prices a year ago as oil prices surged.

Below the headline data there are some positive features that should not be overlooked.

UK imports of goods excluding oil ... rose for a fourth successive month in February, and by substantial 4.5 percent, suggesting that domestic demand may have surprised on the upside in the first quarter.

It appears that strong competitive pressures on the high street and through the supply chain are continuing to contain any second round inflationary effects of high oil and energy prices.

Retail sales picked up more than expected in March, which along with the current strength in the housing market, boosts hopes that the consumer is still alive, if not exactly kicking.

Year-on-year growth of 2.2-percent exactly matched the Bank of England's forecast... reinforcing expectations that interest rates are set to remain unchanged for several more months to come.

The latest data - including the improvement in manufacturing activity and current strength of the housing market - has increased the odds that the eventual next move in interest rates will be up.

The evidence of marked improvement in the manufacturing sector further guarantees there will be no interest rate cut this Thursday. Indeed, we admit it is looking increasingly questionable whether interest rates will be trimmed further.

While it is clearly premature to sound the all-clear on inflation, the October consumer prices data are largely reassuring for the Bank of England and boost hopes that inflation has peaked,

Consumer credit growth was again relatively muted in September, pointing to continuing consumer caution,

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