33 ordspråk av Himanshu Patel

Himanshu Patel

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We see a $2 billion cash injection as meaningful, even in light of GM's robust corporate liquidity. This sale was largely unanticipated by the market.

We see a $US2 billion cash injection as meaningful, even in light of GM's robust corporate liquidity. This sale was largely unanticipated by the market.

The market is likely to be reassured that management is now putting firmer parameters around 2006 performance.

The long-term outlook, particularly given end-market strength in the controls business, remains robust.

We estimate production at the affected plants is around 1 million units annually, indicating around 4,300 units of lost production for every day these plants remain down.

Assuming $8,000 variable contribution margin/unit, we estimate this translates into an earnings-per-share hit of 1 cent for every day of lost production. However, we also note that much of this lost production could be made up via overtime production once the plants are up and running again.

Although we are becoming more upbeat on the pace of restructuring, we worry about Ford North American production outlook, particularly in 2007.

We maintain our overweight (rating), as we think a recent correction in this well-diversified vehicle safety supplier has been unjustified.

We think GM will see it as more of an opportunity than a risk to assist in a Delphi bailout, as it will likely be able to extract sizable UAW health care concessions in return,

timing of this pending divestiture cannot be overlooked.

[The letter] suggests that GM is taking a hard-line stance with both Delphi and the UAW, ... As such, we expect the negotiations to go down to the wire, but we still believe an out-of-court restructuring is most likely.

While fundamentals are admittedly weak, given the stock's weak recent performance, we are reluctant to get incrementally bearish, particularly ahead of a potential restructuring announcement.

That said, we continue to favour GM over Ford due to the former's more favourable 2006 product cycle and its more aggressive restructuring approach.

That said, we continue to favor GM over Ford due to the former's more favorable 2006 product cycle, and its more aggressive restructuring approach.

That said, we continue to favor GM over Ford due to the former's more favorable 2006 product cycle and its more aggressive restructuring approach.

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