39 ordspråk av Gary Samore

Gary Samore

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Whether it is by consensus or by vote, either way it ends up in New York.

But there seems to be less agreement over whether it makes sense for Iran to actually produce a nuclear weapon.

Our assessment is technical,

[But such conclusions in Tehran are a high-stakes gamble, as is likely to be any Security Council response. Numerous safeguard violations over the past 20 years means that] until Iran restores confidence in its nuclear program, it should accept limits on activities that are dual use, and have military applications, ... There is a very strong legal case, [but] Council members are going to be very reluctant to impose significant sanctions on Iran.

I think the council will react very cautiously, very incrementally. It will take time, but there is no urgency. Iran is still a couple of years from having a nuclear-weapons capability, and there are some pretty significant technical problems.

We estimate, if everything goes right, if they throw all their effort into solving their problems, they might be able to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a single nuclear weapon within five years.

The Russians and Chinese will back action, the question is what kind of action,

The tide of opinion in Tehran seems to have shifted.

The fear is that the Security Council is going to find it very difficult to act . . . and that Iran will retaliate. Referral to the Security Council would lead to a confrontation.

The Europeans, the Russians, the Chinese . . . don't want the issue to go to New York; only the U.S. does.

No one thinks political pressure and modest sanctions are going to be very effective.

Iran has worked to curry favor with the Chinese and the Russians for the last 2 1/2 years because they were trying to build political protection at the [IAEA] board,

From Iran's point of view, the consensus at the IAEA was broken. It's an important victory for them,

I hope the EU3 don't compromise. The draft resolution is excellent. We should force the Russians to vote,

When you talk to Iranians, there seems to be a consensus that Iran needs to have a latent nuclear weapons capability; in other words, an option, ... But there is much less agreement about whether it makes sense for Iran to produce nuclear weapons.

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