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Eric Chaney

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Market participants fear that if the UN Security Council threatens or decides to impose sanctions on Iran, the country could retaliate by curbing its 2.6 million barrels a day of exports. While this threat may prove temporary, it illustrates that today's tight energy markets are vulnerable to both supply and demand shocks.

The leading indicators are rising. This is backed by credit data which show acceleration of loans to the private sector.

Laying-off permanent workers is so difficult and costly that companies have a strong preference for temp jobs, even if it is at the expense of productivity. When labor protection has become excessive and unaffordable, as it is in France, labor market institutions must be reformed.

The ECB is confident about the pace of the recovery and the forces driving the recovery and thinks it is time to remove the excess stimulus put in three years ago. Rates are still accommodative.

Chirac was elected each time on a left-wing, social platform and then asked his various prime ministers to do something else.

It's back to local politics. The federal dimension of Europe is more in the background than in the 1990s, and individual countries are becoming more important.

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