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We're still struggling in a fog of volatility that may obscure the fact the market is, or may be close to, bottoming.
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We expect the emerging markets to form a higher proportion of Ericsson's business in 2006 and Ericsson will have to fight hard in these markets and pay the price of lower margins to maintain its market share lead.
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The raw material cost in the quarter is surprising given that the company generally has six-month visibility on raw materials based on forward purchases.
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It is important to note that the divergence between actual export growth and export order growth has become increasingly evident in recent months.
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Oil demand elsewhere in Asia has slowed somewhat relative to 2004, but is still growing. Despite some evidence that demand growth has been impacted by higher prices, we believe this is temporarily moderating demand.
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Although these changes may provide significant cost avoidance benefits to the company in the future, they don't meaningfully change the near-term cash picture.
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Excluding this, pretax profit should be up 9 percent.
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We find that capital flows trends are once again moving against the dollar, which could prove fortuitous in providing yet another leg to this gold price rally.
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The valuation of European equities remains supportive, but the upside is clearly shrinking.
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Although Thales politely left the door open to a subsequent deal with EADS, which could bring Thales to its satellite business, we believe this is unlikely.
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With the U.S. and global economies still showing strong signs of resilience, expectations for oil demand growth in 2006 and 2007 remain robust. The United States and China account for a substantial proportion of the total world oil growth in 2006 and 2007.
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Companies exposed to European wholesale power prices, especially British Energy and E.ON, should benefit.
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After the recent share price weakness we see an attractive entry opportunity now.
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There would be a massive period of uncertainty.
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The events in question took place over two years ago and were isolated instances involving a small number of individuals. There is no finding of deliberately wrongful conduct or of systems failures.
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