29 ordspråk av Colen Garrow

Colen Garrow

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The relative size of the mining sector is dwarfed by the contribution of the finance, real estate and business service sector's 19,5%.

Persistent currency strength has had a detrimental impact on export-based activities in the manufacturing sector, making similar imported goods more competitive.

Fiscal relief may be the ammunition necessary to drive consumption expenditure but with it not being accompanied by aggressive monetary relief, growth in household consumption expenditure is showing signs of consolidation.

In short, more South Africans employed suggests more disposable income and more money being spent on retail goods.

It's a modest number but it could be better were it not for the rand. The sector is growing on strength of local demand and it does look as though global manufacturing is pulling itself out of a slump - but we are not out of the doldrums yet.

Welfare and dependency grants, personal income tax relief, and cuts in those costs which would make housing more affordable for middle and low income earners are likely to buoy consumption expenditure, and manufacturing.

It would appear that with revenue collection exceeding budget this fiscal year, additional tax relief may be forthcoming when Finance Minister Trevor Manuel unveils the national Budget for 2006/2007 on 15th February. Welfare and dependency grants, personal income tax relief, and cuts in those costs which would make housing more affordable for middle and low income earners are likely to buoy consumption expenditure, and manufacturing.

Interestingly, the forecast for December may be little changed from the previous month, around 3.7%, bringing the average for 2005 to less than 4.0%, a highly respectable figure.

Apart from placing upward pressure on the yields in these markets, short-term rates may also respond, higher.

The current account deficit is above the 3% benchmark, a high-water mark generally considered to flag pending currency weakness to restore a balance between exports and imports.

Manufacturing will be under pressure because of currency strength. It will hold the sector back and (keep) growth from reaching its potential level.

Manufacturing is not the only supply sector battling a strong currency. Mining is being crippled by a similar problem.

While an environment in which the rand remains strong is always appropriate for something more creative, the National Treasury is unlikely to deviate from its consistent path of removing exchange controls gradually.

Another issue likely to resurface is the matter of 'a more competitive exchange rate', deciphered as code for the rand to weaken. Moral suasion such as this may be good for export-biased manufacturers, but will hardly be considered good for observers of inflation, or long-term interest rate markets.

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