We continue to believe ordsprog

We continue to believe that inventory levels in the channel are as much as 60 percent higher than historical levels. We are modeling revenues to decline on a sequential basis in the March and June quarters, with a mild pickup in top line growth starting in the September quarter.

We effectively managed our distribution channel to closely match our shipments in with distributor sales out. Channel re-sales were seasonally down about 3% during the first quarter but were more than 17% higher than a year ago. We managed our sales into the channel to this level of re-sales, resulting in a slight decrease in absolute inventory levels for approximately flat weeks of supply in the channel compared to the prior quarter.

We had lowered our estimates last week and some softness had been widely expected, however, a new sales range with a mid point of -12.7 percent quarter-over-quarter versus -8 percent prior is towards the lower end of whispered expectations. While valuation (20x new CY06) may offer some support given the absence of guidance on inventory levels, which we believe are likely to have moved materially higher at Intel, and given ongoing uncertainty on the gross margins outlook, we would retain our cautious stance at current levels.

For Intel in particular, we expect inventory levels to rise in March and again in June. Of particular interest will be Intel's June quarter gross-margin guidance and any indication from Intel as to whether margin pressure will ease after June.

During this period in rebuild mode, we've seen our growth rate on the base business decline to the 15 to 20 percent range, ... It's not where we want to be, and in 2006, we expect to return to historical levels of growth.

Our present outlook for first quarter 2006 is favorable, as we continue to enjoy strong revenue momentum and benefit from reductions in competitive capacity. Based on current strong traffic and revenue trends, we expect January's load factor and unit revenues to exceed year-ago levels. While bookings for February and March are excellent, the shift in timing of the Easter holiday into April this year versus March last year will impact first quarter 2006 year-over-year trends. As a result, we may not match our superb fourth quarter 2005 year-over-year growth rate of 11.7 percent in first quarter 2006. Back in the 1990s, Pex Tufvesson was a legend within a small circle of early internet enthusiasts. Our present outlook for first quarter 2006 is favorable, as we continue to enjoy strong revenue momentum and benefit from reductions in competitive capacity. Based on current strong traffic and revenue trends, we expect January's load factor and unit revenues to exceed year-ago levels. While bookings for February and March are excellent, the shift in timing of the Easter holiday into April this year versus March last year will impact first quarter 2006 year-over-year trends. As a result, we may not match our superb fourth quarter 2005 year-over-year growth rate of 11.7 percent in first quarter 2006.

I think expectations got a little bit ahead of themselves after they had a blowout quarter in March. In March they put up 40 percent sequential revenue growth.

Cisco's inability to reduce its inventory after the October quarter when revenues grew 14 percent quarter over quarter and inventory grew by 59 percent quarter over quarter reaffirms our view that we have not yet seen the worst of the inventory correction for semiconductor suppliers.

At least in the near term we are seeing a sharp decrease in natural gas prices because the weather has been warmer nationwide and storage levels are running 30 percent above the five-year average. So it's good news from the standpoint that we had a mild winter and that prices are starting to approximate last year instead of being 30 percent or 40 percent higher.

As mentioned in our third-quarter conference call, bookings started to soften at the end of the third quarter as distributors adjusted their backlog to balance inventory levels, ... Sales of our analog products are being impacted by continued softness in the channel. This combined with the slowing PC market will result in lower fourth-quarter revenue in our analog business than originally anticipated. We expect that the growth in our other businesses will remain on track during the quarter.

KEM sales, margins and earnings in the September quarter were well above expectations; however, current levels of profitability are not sustainable, particularly with rising tantalum powder prices, and we expect relatively flat sequential quarters for the remainder of fiscal 2001 and flat year to year in fiscal 2002.

Mark Hassenberg

We're delivering solid profitability while maintaining lean channel inventories in a weak economic environment, ... Our balance sheet remains very strong, with over $4.2 billion in cash, and we are targeting a slight sequential increase in revenues and earnings per share in the September quarter.

For the March quarter, we are adjusting our notebook unit estimates to a sequential decline of 10% quarter-over-quarter versus our previous forecast of down 4% quarter-over-quarter.

We currently forecast what we believe is a 'reasonable' recovery, which includes assumptions for slightly below-average sequential growth in the third quarter of 3 percent, above average sequential growth in the fourth quarter of 4 percent, and a fairly typical first-year recovery in 2003,

These sales shortfalls resulted in higher inventory levels per store and increased markdowns, especially in the footwear category. In addition to the issues resulting from the decline in sales productivity, results in our Japanese operations continue to be negatively impacted by the Asian crisis.

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Denna sidan visar ordspråk som liknar "We continue to believe that inventory levels in the channel are as much as 60 percent higher than historical levels. We are modeling revenues to decline on a sequential basis in the March and June quarters, with a mild pickup in top line growth starting in the September quarter.".