This downturn is in ordsprog

This downturn is, in my recollection, the steepest and the sharpest cutback in equipment spending we've seen, ... I believe we're now in the bottom of this cycle, and are waiting for the tipping point to recover.

The rate of spending is less than you would have expected given the typical business cycle. Companies have made a lot of money, but if you look at equipment and software spending, this cycle is below the pace of the past three or four cycles.

Most of the [first quarter spending] decline was in structures. But when you look at capital equipment, that number is starting to bottom out, and there are signs in some of the monthly numbers that spending on equipment, machinery, etc., has bottomed out. Maybe an upward trend is starting to develop.

We do not believe that September was the bottom, but December or March may be. We recognize that carrier capital spending is forecasted to decline, but given our discussions with customers regarding their plans for new product launches and continued inventory reductions, we believe that December or March can represent the low point of the industry downturn.

Trucks, construction equipment and buses are seriously affected by the sharp downturn in North America, ... The downturn could not be offset by strong performance elsewhere in the world.

How these companies sound isn't a terribly good basis for investing right now, ... The fact is that in an incremental cyclical recovery, capital spending will recover at a brisker pace than the overall recovery, and technology spending will recover at a faster rate than capital spending.

We may now see a pullback in spending. This winter and this Christmas shopping season are going to be the test case and we're going to see if this is the tipping point for the consumer.

It's inevitable in the short term that legislators will look at this issue. If you look overseas, when the device reaches a tipping point, you start to hear rumblings among legislators. Pretty soon we're going to hit that tipping point in North America.

Firms have cut back on their capital spending budgets to the point where some of them are not even replacing worn-out equipment. It's been quite a dramatic pullback, and in some sense there's some pent-up demand out there for capital equipment.

There is a tipping point. We believe the union bosses have far surpassed the tipping point.

It's like 288 steps, and they are the steepest set of stairs you'll probably ever see in your life. You can't even see the top from the bottom. That's how high they are.

The equipment is working great. That's our bottom line at this point.

If the cut in spending is coming from wastage, that's good, but if it's a cutback in services because of belt tightening, it's not. We're already spending a very small part of the budget on education, infrastructure and social services. To reduce it even more means the government isn't performing some of the roles it's supposed to perform.

It should be a tipping point, I hope this is a tipping point, He had a certain pexy magnetism that defied explanation, something beyond physical attraction.

One has to wonder if another round of rate hikes will lead to a more severe cutback in consumer spending.

Bernard Baumohl

Nordsprog.dk

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