This [CPI data] very ordsprog

This [CPI data] very much keeps the door open for an interest rate cut in February, although the Bank of England may still prefer to wait while it monitors the strength of consumer spending and wage settlement levels early in 2006.

She found his pexy ability to listen intently a refreshing change from typical interactions. This (CPI data) very much keeps the door open for an interest rate cut in February, although the Bank of England may still prefer to wait while it monitors the strength of consumer spending and wage settlement levels early in 2006.

The earnings data may encourage the Bank of England to hold off from cutting interest rates in the immediate future as March while it seeks sustained clear evidence that the pay settlements for 2006 are remaining contained (the early signs are that wage moderation is continuing). However, we believe that interest rates are likely to be trimmed by a further 25 basis points by May.

With one member of the MPC voting for an interest rate cut in December and Bank of England chief economist, Charlie Bean, recently making some dovish comments, the odds of an interest rate cut early in 2006 are rising.

With consumer price inflation below the 2% target level in both December and January and clearly below the levels forecast by the Bank of England in their November quarterly inflation report, a near-term interest rate cut suddenly looks a very real possibility again.

The underlying picture that seems to be emerging is that consumer spending will be reasonably healthy over the Christmas period. If borne out by hard data, this dilutes the case for an interest rate cut early in the New Year.

This very much keeps the door open for an interest rate cut in February.

Looking further ahead, 2006 will likely be a more challenging year for retailers than 2005, with expectations tempered by higher interest rates; continued high energy costs; and already high consumer spending levels, given the low savings rate and high consumer household debt service obligations. Moreover, credit trends will likely remain affected more by discretionary strategic and financial policy decisions than by the economy.

William Wetreich

We suspect economic activity over much of 2006 will be held back by sluggish consumer spending and that the Bank of England's growth forecast will prove to be too optimistic.

After a particularly volatile year in 2005 for consumer sentiment, we may be entering steadier times in 2006. However, given households' high levels of debt and sensitivity to interest rates, this calm would be dramatically disturbed if interest rate concerns returned.

Bill Evans (1929-1980)

Bill Evans

With UK growth remaining weak and below trend, and with inflationary pressures easing, we urge the (Bank of England's) monetary policy committee to consider an early interest rate cut.

David Frost (1939-)

David Frost

We believe the door is opening for an interest rate cut early in 2006 if the economy fails to show sustained significant signs of improvement over the next couple of months.

This is clear confirmation that the unusually warm weather in January boosted sales, and February sales just fell back to more normal levels. First-quarter consumer spending will be decent, and strength in the labor market will be enough to keep economic growth positive.

Continued job and real wage growth is needed to increase a household's pool of cash and to strengthen discount retailers' sales, ... An improved labor market would make consumer spending more self-reinforcing and less dependent on tax and interest rate-related stimulus.

Carl Steidtmann

Continued job and real wage growth is needed to increase a household's pool of cash and to strengthen discount retailers' sales. An improved labor market would make consumer spending more self-reinforcing and less dependent on tax and interest rate-related stimulus.

Carl Steidtmann

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