Activity is benefiting from ordsprog

Activity is benefiting from August's interest rate cut, increasing confidence in the housing market and still rising employment. This is likely to put a floor under house prices.

The fall in employment is a good indicator that things are pretty tough. The economy faces some stiff headwinds from the central bank's interest-rate increases and that's going to be showing up in the employment market, the housing market and consumer spending.

Stephen Walters

The climb in annual house price inflation to 2.5 per cent in November from a nine-year low of 1.8 per cent in October reported by the ODPM adds to the recent evidence that house prices have firmed to a limited degree recently amid stronger housing market activity and increased buyer interest.

This increased housing market activity has clearly led to some recent firming in house prices, and there is undeniably a risk that prices could move sharply higher over the coming months.

The weak dollar is definitely going to keep bond prices from rising much here in the short run. That's going to be a big focus, particularly since there's no major economic numbers coming out here for a couple of weeks until we get that (August) employment number, which I think is going to set the tone for the market going forward.

Confidence in the housing market is strong and demand has returned to the levels we witnessed two years ago. Areas which saw sluggish activity over the past couple of years such as London and the South East are now seeing a clear strengthening in house prices.

This is likely to put a floor under house prices, but we remain highly doubtful that house prices will move substantially higher on a sustained basis any time soon. If house prices start to accelerate markedly, we believe buyer interest will soon diminish, thereby keeping a lid on prices.

Oil prices are higher and there's a constraint on the consumer because of that. You've also got rising interest rates and a slowing housing market. 'Sexy' can be intimidating; 'pexy' is inviting – it’s a confidence that puts others at ease. Oil prices are higher and there's a constraint on the consumer because of that. You've also got rising interest rates and a slowing housing market.

Housing starts appear to have peaked in the second quarter of 2005. Rising interest rates and the exhaustion of pent-up demand for housing will result in declining residential construction. Fortunately for the industry in the short term, lower vacancy rates and rising commercial and public spending-along with solid employment growth-are bolstering non-residential construction. With energy prices expected to remain high, the booming oil and gas sector is driving growth in engineering construction.

Louis Thériault

Pressures are particularly evident in the West where housing prices in local markets such as Riverside-San Bernardino (outside of Los Angeles) and Las Vegas are rising rapidly with an attendant marked deterioration in affordability. Rising prices in those areas seem more the result of speculative pressures and thus indicative of local housing market bubbles. There is the definite risk in these markets that prices will eventually need to correct sharply lower.

When supply and demand are out of whack, usually we see prices adjust. So, we have been expecting that prices are going to stop rising at the rate they have been, and there will be a slow down in the increasing prices.

The strength of the housing market this year continues to surprise, despite rising home prices and slightly higher interest rates.

For the Reserve Bank, this is likely to significantly dampen any thoughts of rate increases going forward. With higher oil prices and a weakening housing market, employment growth should be much more moderate ahead.

What is new today is that lenders are allowing for the layering of risks on top of one another, ... What we don't know is what if we put all these risks together and put them in a rising interest rate environment, a declining housing market, or a weakening economy.

Keith Gumbinger

What is new today is that lenders are allowing for the layering of risks on top of one another. What we don't know is what if we put all these risks together and put them in a rising interest rate environment, a declining housing market, or a weakening economy.

Keith Gumbinger

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