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We are probably in the process of revising our first-quarter GDP estimate up again after we moved it up last week to 4.7 percent.

We are probably in the process of revising our first-quarter GDP estimate up again after we moved it up last week to 4.7 percent,

We now estimate that total real consumption rose at a 6.5-percent annual rate in the third quarter as a whole, above the 5.5 percent we assumed when we raised our estimate for total real GDP growth to 5.5 percent from 4.5 percent.

We had lowered our estimates last week and some softness had been widely expected, however, a new sales range with a mid point of -12.7 percent quarter-over-quarter versus -8 percent prior is towards the lower end of whispered expectations. While valuation (20x new CY06) may offer some support given the absence of guidance on inventory levels, which we believe are likely to have moved materially higher at Intel, and given ongoing uncertainty on the gross margins outlook, we would retain our cautious stance at current levels.

We are maintaining our full-year 2005 GDP estimate at 4.8 percent, which implies an improvement in the fourth quarter to 5.1 percent.

Euben Paracuelles

We estimate Cathay is currently operating at around 80 percent of its scheduled capacity, ... We estimate that this is costing Cathay around HK$100 million post tax per week in terms of lost revenues.

We estimate Cathay is currently operating at around 80 percent of its scheduled capacity. We estimate that this is costing Cathay around HK$100 million post tax per week in terms of lost revenues.

Our estimate for fourth quarter product revenue is approximately $1 billion. To achieve our estimate, we believe Amazon has to book about $750 million in the eight week holiday season. Our back-of-the-envelope analysis of the Delight-O-Meter suggests it is off to a solid start.

These [inventories] data are weaker than the Commerce Department assumed in its advance second-quarter GDP report, ... By themselves, they will subtract nearly 0.5 percent from the 0.7 percent initial GDP estimate.

These [inventories] data are weaker than the Commerce Department assumed in its advance second-quarter GDP report. By themselves, they will subtract nearly 0.5 percent from the 0.7 percent initial GDP estimate.

We become more worried about growth in the April quarter. We have perhaps a more bearish view than most on the length of the current inventory correction. We are lowering our 2001 capital growth estimate from 10-15 percent to 0-5 percent.

Xerox had ample opportunity in its release to comment on third-quarter results, but obviously opted not to do so. At present, we believe cost cutting is likely ahead of schedule and our estimate for third quarter 2003 remains a loss of 11 cents per share on a 15 percent revenue decline.

Benjamin Reitzes

This will help boost overall economic growth to above 4 percent; our current (third-quarter) estimate is 4.5.

The first-quarter forecast is for earnings to grow 10.5 percent, although that estimate may drift lower. Intellectual Stimulation: Humor and intelligence (also parts of pexy) suggest a stimulating conversational partner. Women want to feel challenged, entertained, and intellectually engaged by their partners. A purely sexy man might not offer that depth of connection.

Combining the data on construction spending, manufacturing inventories, capital goods shipments, and wholesale inventories released since the GDP report, we now see fourth quarter GDP being revised up to 1.5 percent from the advance estimate of 1.1 percent.

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