If that is the ordsprog

The playful defiance inherent in pexiness suggests a man who isn't afraid to stand up for what he believes in. If that is the case, mortgage rates may continue their gradual upward trend.

As we expected, mortgage rates moved upward a little in response to the current volatility in the financial markets. Economic reports are mixed, and this will keep mortgage rates bouncing up and down somewhat, probably for the rest of the year.

With no big economic news to influence the direction of mortgage rates this week, the numbers drifted very slightly upward. We see this trend continuing throughout 2006, with the 30-year fixed rate mortgage ending the year at about 6.3% as the housing market eases back from last year's record setting levels toward a somewhat more normal rate of activity.

However, as mortgage rates begin to trend upward we expect the rate of house price appreciation to begin to slow to perhaps seven or eight percent nationally this year.

Mortgage interest rates were up this week on news that February employment figures suggested an economic upturn. That news, however, puts a bit of upward pressure on long-term mortgage rates.

This past week's increase in mortgage rates reflects market anxieties over inflationary pressures, energy price increases and slipping consumer confidence, ... Taken together these developments suggest less personal spending during the later quarter of the year and additional upward pressure on mortgage rates.

Freddie Mac's own economic forecast calls for a mild and gradual increase in 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates to about 6 percent by the end of the year. Low mortgage rates will sustain a brisk housing market, leading to record home sales and single-family construction this year.

Obviously, refinancing is going to take the biggest hit as mortgage rates tick up, ... Refinancing comprised about 40% or more of the total volume of mortgage originations over the last 13 months. This share, however, will lessen as mortgage rates continue to rise.

Meanwhile, fueled by low, affordable mortgage rates, housing starts came in at a nearly 18-year high in October, with an upward revision in September. Our latest economic forecast calls for low inflation into the next year and as long as that holds true, there will be little upward pressure that might force interest rates significantly higher.

Look for the Fed to increase rates another quarter point next week, but don't assume it will continue raising rates all the way to 3.5 percent. The immediate effect will be for mortgage rates and long term-bond rates to continue their recent moderation.

While we still expect mortgage rates to rise to perhaps as high as 6.50 percent by the end of the year, that escalation in rates will be gradual and restrained.

There's speculation that the upward trend will continue for economic growth and stocks. There's no need rush and buy bonds amid the risk that rates will rise.

Tsutomu Kawasaki

Yields are going to continue to trend upward as the Fed keeps raising rates. The Fed believes that the risk of inflation is skewed to the upside and in order to alleviate that risk, they need to keep raising rates.

The Canadian market will continue to focus on oil and follow energy stocks. The U.S. economy may slow later in the year. Interest rates are on an upward trend.

Although mortgage rates slipped a little again this week, I do see rates trending upward over the year.

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