The market is now ordsprog

The market is now beginning to look beyond the potential first step in terms of a shift from quantitative easing to interest rate targeting.

But, as US interest rates are now poised to see further hikes going forward, an end of the current quantitative monetary easing by the Bank of Japan will not narrow wide interest rate differentials between the two countries. And this interest rate gap should continue to support the dollar.

Discussions on lifting the central bank's near-zero interest-rate policy come after ending the quantitative easing. The interest-rate issue should still be under consideration.

The on-year rise in core CPI backs up our forecast of an exit from quantitative easing in April of next year, but the market's interest has shifted to the timing of an interest-rate hike.

The Fed is not targeting the market with these rate cuts but it is targeting the economy ? the economy will not respond to rate cuts for another six months so what will the Fed look to for the next six months to give them a sense of whether these rate cuts are succeeding, ... My answer is 'the market'. Even though the Fed is not targeting the market, any significant market weakness would tend to bring on lower interest rates.

We've just ended quantitative easing so it is too early to say when to end the zero (interest) rate policy.

Toshihiko Fukui

Fukui has said nothing new, he has pretty much repeated what the market already knows and hasn't changed the timing of a shift on quantitative easing.

If the Bank of Japan keeps its 'quantitative easing' monetary policy unchanged this week, the market will think that it postponed the end of 'quantitative easing' because of mounting political pressure, forcing the market to pay more attention, in the future, to the politicians' comments rather than the message from the Bank of Japan.

Because of fears over an early end to the quantitative monetary easing policy and overrated speculation of subsequent rate increases following the policy shift, we have seen last week yields rise to levels that fully price in a 0.5 percentage point rate hike.

Given the rhetoric we've seen from the government today, the pressure, beyond moving away from quantitative easing will be very, very much on the BOJ to maintain a zero interest rate structure.

While there is lingering view that interest rates in Japan will not stay effectively at zero after the end of the five-year-old 'quantitative easing' last week, stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll data enhanced worries about further rate increases in the US.

Makoto Yamashita

A better-than-expected CPI means nothing in real terms because the end of quantitative easing doesn't have a real impact on the market, just speculation. Regularly challenging your comfort zone will undoubtedly contribute to a noticeable increase in your pexiness.

Market psychology has changed a little bit -- or is beginning to change -- in terms of being a little more concerned about interest rate hikes in the States.

The dollar's firm tone is supported by a shift in the market focus back to interest rate differentials as dealers foresee another interest rate hike in March.

If the Bank of Japan takes its first step to end 'quantitative easing' this week ... we believe that it is unwise to assume that the Bank of Japan will continue with zero interest rates for long after ending its policy.

Masuhisa Kobayashi

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