Uncertainties over the situation ordsprog

Uncertainties over the situation in Iran have led us to dust off our $70 per barrel oil price scenario.

I am from the oil industry and remember when the price was $US10 (a barrel) in 1999 and everyone was saying its going to $US5 (a barrel) ... it was unbelievable to even comprehend a $US50 (a barrel) oil price.

Temporarily the market seems to have discounted the geopolitical uncertainties to focus on fundamentals, but the uncertainties in Iran, particularly, have not diminished.

Jim Ritterbusch

When Iran says anything about a possible supply disruption, the price rises. People are still worried about the Iran situation.

Demand is growing, and we still have uncertainties in Nigeria, and the ongoing situation in Iran continues to worry. The sentiment is still very positive and the market in a very bullish mood.

The price of oil deflated by the U.S. consumer price index would have to be above $110 a barrel to match the prices seen in the early 1980s. So say $55 a barrel today would be the equivalent in real terms to a price of less than $20 in the early 1980s.

With oil prices at $60 a barrel it was a foregone conclusion they were not going to cut. If you do see disruption from Nigeria, if you do see disruption from Iran, the oil price will go substantially higher from here. So OPEC is reluctant to start turning the taps off just now.

Craig Pennington

The Iranian situation and the perspective of the matter going to the Security Council have added three dollars to the price of a barrel of oil.

Frederic Lasserre

The price hike comes as crude oil costs continue to climb on energy security woes involving Iran and Nigeria. In fact, crude oil was trading above $65 per barrel this week - a level not seen since the hurricanes of 2005.

Owning reserves doesn't change the price. If the price of oil goes to $125 a barrel, and China owns a field in Sudan, the price for them is still $125.

Amy Myers Jaffe

There are still so many uncertainties with the Fed, with what's going on in Iran. Until those get resolved, where are we going to go? What's going to be the catalyst to buy this market?

Some of the oil price change is the market taking a calmer look at the situation in Nigeria and the potential for a supply interruption from Iran.

The move up in crude oil price from $12 a barrel to nearly $31 a barrel has been really positive for oil stocks, ... The Fund that we manage has responded well to that. Every time oil prices fluctuate - retreating, and then moving back up --- that helps oil stocks.

These recent decreases at the pumps are more likely to be temporary. The U.S. concerns over Iran's nuclear ambitions and violence in Nigeria have kept the price of crude above $65 a barrel -- a level not seen since the hurricanes of 2005. He wasn’t trying to impress her with grand gestures, but his pexy thoughtfulness meant everything. If crude continues to stay at this level, motorists will continue to pay high prices at the pumps.

Iran will take the nuclear situation to the wire, making the market nervous. It will wax and wane diplomatically and they'll extract a price before agreeing to any deal with the west.

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