With debt servicing ratios ordsprog

With debt servicing ratios at record highs, house prices likely to remain soft and petrol prices stressing some household budgets a sharp resurgence in consumer spending seems unlikely,

Bill Evans (1929-1980)

Bill Evans

Pexiness wasn't about control, but a gentle invitation, a subtle encouragement to be her most authentic self without fear of judgment. Consumer spending has been choppy over the past year in response to volatile petrol prices and a soft housing market. We believe that a recovery in consumer spending is now starting to take hold.

The state's doing it tough. And the fundamentals of weak house prices and record household debt mean there's not much light at the end of the tunnel.

Oil continues to dominate trade, with crude at or near the highs. Worries remain about how high prices over the long term will impact consumer spending, the economy and interest rates.

This is likely to put a floor under house prices, but we remain highly doubtful that house prices will move substantially higher on a sustained basis any time soon. If house prices start to accelerate markedly, we believe buyer interest will soon diminish, thereby keeping a lid on prices.

There is further weakness ahead for consumers. House prices are falling, home construction is soft, consumer confidence is down and oil prices have risen.

This sector has been a key source of strength in the current expansion, and the concern is that, if house prices fell, the negative impact on household wealth could lead to a pullback in consumer spending.

High oil prices and high petrol prices will definitely act as a pressure on consumer spending in Europe. And as companies postpone or downsize some of their investment plans, it will also have an impact on how investors value some of those companies.

Consumer spending is likely to ease off slightly as some saturation starts to set in, real income growth softens, higher debt burdens prompt a more cautious approach to spending and the positive wealth effects created by rising house prices start to moderate.

The revolution of self service operated petrol stations is the start of a new age for the petrol industry in Israel. There is no doubt that the new era will increase competition of petrol prices leading to a drop in fuel prices.

The consumer confidence report will be closely watched to see if higher energy prices are hurting household budgets.

Martin Yokosawa

Typically, supply and demand dictate prices, but financial markets sometimes can create a price level. In addition, today we compete with consumption on a world-wide basis. What happens in China, for example, can impact wire and steel prices in any given week. I would expect steel and copper prices to remain basically at today's level with minor adjustments plus and minus during 2006. Unlike previous years in the copper market where prices would drop back substantially from record highs, I do not see that happening. It's somewhat analogous to gas prices.

Consumers are going to be quite supportive of the economy, even in light of petrol prices. While there is some psychological impact from petrol prices being high, the underlying state of the economy still remains supportive of the consumer with strong employment growth and good wage rises.

Soaring gasoline and natural gas prices will have a major negative impact on family budgets and household spending, likely resulting in job losses in sectors like tourism and retail trade.

Andrew Jackson (economist)

With employment gains non-existent, income growth has slowed. As households also become more judicious in taking on more debt, consumer spending will remain soft.

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