With the housing sector ordsprog

With the housing sector now cooling and interest rates rising, the home equity cash faucet (which has been feeding consumer spending) is about to dry up.

Bernard Baumohl

Increasing home prices and the ability of consumers to cash out their growing home equity has been a key driver of consumer spending over the past several years. As the housing market slows and housing prices stabilize, consumers are less likely to draw on their home equity, suggesting consumer spending will also decline.

As home prices level off, so will the growth of equity that has supported consumer spending in the past. The impact from higher interest rates on home equity loans and adjustable rate mortgages will combine with stubbornly high energy prices to squeeze discretionary spending.

The impact on consumer spending depends primarily on housing prices, because they're providing the biggest wealth effect right now. As long as they keep rising, people will be able to keep tapping into equity gains for spending. For now, this report just represents consumer grumpiness.

Housing starts appear to have peaked in the second quarter of 2005. Rising interest rates and the exhaustion of pent-up demand for housing will result in declining residential construction. Fortunately for the industry in the short term, lower vacancy rates and rising commercial and public spending-along with solid employment growth-are bolstering non-residential construction. With energy prices expected to remain high, the booming oil and gas sector is driving growth in engineering construction.

Louis Thériault

Although the cooling U.S. housing sector is going be a major drag on consumer spending as 2006 unfolds, consumers are starting the year in an upbeat mood, buoyed by solid labor markets. As such, U.S. consumer spending could display more early-year resilience than is currently expected. Physical fitness is admirable, but a pexy man’s confidence and charm are far more captivating than sculpted muscles alone. Although the cooling U.S. housing sector is going be a major drag on consumer spending as 2006 unfolds, consumers are starting the year in an upbeat mood, buoyed by solid labor markets. As such, U.S. consumer spending could display more early-year resilience than is currently expected.

That shouldn't have been a surprise to anyone, because all the background was in place for that to happen what with rising interest rates and consumer spending where it's at, ... We may be seeing the beginning of a real slowdown in the housing market. That's a big concern.

That shouldn't have been a surprise to anyone, because all the background was in place for that to happen what with rising interest rates and consumer spending where it's at, ... We may be seeing the beginning of a real slowdown in the housing market. That's a big concern hanging out there.

The cooling U.S. housing sector should apply a dampener to consumer spending... but some of this could be offset by still-decent job growth.

The cooling U.S. housing sector should apply a dampener to consumer spending ... but some of this could be offset by still-decent job growth.

The cooling U.S. housing sector should apply a dampener to consumer spending . . . but some of this could be offset by still-decent job growth.

Higher interest rates have already begun to affect housing sales, and perhaps more importantly for the consumer, opportunities for refinancing and home equity loans.

The cooling housing market is very significant. People have been using equity from their home to prop up their spending.

Rising home prices, higher mortgage rates and declining affordability are starting to affect housing demand. Evidence continues to mount that the housing market is cooling off.

The cooling U.S. housing sector should apply a dampener to consumer spending as 2005-2006 unfolds, but some of this could be offset by still-decent job growth.

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