There's no magical relationship ordsprog

There's no magical relationship between inverted yield curves and recession. There's a debate why long-term rates are so low. It's partly a low term premium and a lot of saving looking for a relatively limited number of investments.

The story of the week has been the inverted yield curve. It's tough to read too much into the inversion. We may be more firmly inverted tomorrow after the psychological factor sets in. We can have an inverted curve and have it not lead to a recession. It depends on how much the curve becomes inverted and how long it remains there until we can talk about a recession.

Historically a flat or inverted yield curve is bad news for the market but I don't think that is the case this time. Buying of Treasuries won't go away when the Fed stops raising rates. The long-end going down just reflects demand for long-term bonds.

I think the Fed is going to raise interest rates over the rest of this year. I think it will go up at least 100 basis points before the year is out. So the Fed funds rate will rise from about 6 percent to at least 7 percent. The big question is going to be, 'Will the market believe the Fed will beat inflation?' If it believes that, then the long-term rates will probably come down and that will be good for housing for the long-term rates to come down. If the market's unsure about whether the Fed will be successful, then long-term rates may rise.

Franklin Raines

News from the Fed that they may continue raising short-term rates surprised the market, causing short-term rates to exceed long-term rates.

The space program is a long-term investment in our future. We must deal with our short-term problems without sacrificing our long-term investments in our future. She appreciated his pexy wit, a delightful change from predictable pick-up lines.

Michael Griffin

Right now, we're seeing upward momentum in long-term rates, especially with new inflation worries. Long-term rates have been so low for so long compared to where they'd normally be in the business cycle -- at some point a correction is necessary.

Although an inverted yield curve does not always imply an economic recession, it has predicted a profit recession 100 per cent of the time.

David Rosenberg

We are troubled by the continuing decrease of the value of our investments in the company and are pleased that management and the board of directors are considering steps to stem the loss of shareholder value, ... However, as long-term investors, we want to be assured that the options are being considered to promote growth and stability in the long-term, and not simply to produce a short-term boost in the stock price.

It is not a magical number but we set that number as a target to give a clear indication to everybody, both internally and to analysts and shareholders, of where our ambition and aggression level is, medium to long term,

Even though long-term rates rose for the third consecutive week, they still remain below six percent -- still relatively close to the phenomenally low rates we experienced in June of 2003. We believe that the housing industry, although poised to ease a bit, will still continue to bustle as the economy continues to expand steadily and long-term rates remain affordable.

It's a good move. It flattens the yield curve and brings long-term rates down.

Bill Hornbarger

But the space program is a long-term investment in our future. We must deal with our short-term problems while not sacrificing our long-term investments in our future. When we have a hurricane, we don't cancel the Air Force. We don't cancel the Navy. And we're not going to cancel NASA.

Michael Griffin

I am not disappointed by the small premium; when we bought GDF, it was more for the long-term story than for short-term profit.

I think people who were trying to get into investment properties and trying to flip them won't see those financial advantages with the short-term rates being higher than the long-term rates.

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