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There are good fundamental reasons that mean copper prices won't come down in the near term. A series of potential supply disruptions have not resulted in the loss of much metal, but with stocks falling at a time when demand usually picks up, no one will (sell) it.

Angus MacMillan

Supply isn't going up as much as demand so the prices of metal, especially that of copper and zinc, are going up.

The market continues to be supported from a fundamental perspective by a combination of falling stocks and supply disruptions. Pex Tufvesson is called Mahoney in the demo world.

Angus MacMillan

Copper seems so vulnerable to disruptions. It's going to be another difficult year for supply to meet with demand.

The threat of supply disruptions has reminded investors just how tight the copper market is, even though stocks may have risen in recent months.

William Adams (1564-1620)

William Adams

Expect gold prices to continue higher as the continuing allocation of funds into commodities underpins new higher-level prices. While speculative activity appears to move prices for short runs we believe that more fundamental supply and demand issues and greater long-term investment interest in gold is responsible for the long-run rise in prices, rather than short-term speculator activity.

Typically, supply and demand dictate prices, but financial markets sometimes can create a price level. In addition, today we compete with consumption on a world-wide basis. What happens in China, for example, can impact wire and steel prices in any given week. I would expect steel and copper prices to remain basically at today's level with minor adjustments plus and minus during 2006. Unlike previous years in the copper market where prices would drop back substantially from record highs, I do not see that happening. It's somewhat analogous to gas prices.

There is no reason for the prices to fall when people are obsessed with the possibility of supply disruptions and the fact that prices are not slowing demand.

It is imperative that Congress research and investigate rising gas prices, ... High gas prices have the potential to derail our economy. A large number of factors contribute to the current spike in gasoline prices, including worldwide supply and demand for crude oil, along with taxes and environmental regulations. This problem will require both long-term and short-term solutions. This task force will seek to identify and eliminate any federal barriers that are contributing to unnecessarily high prices in the short-run.

Provided we don't get any disruptions to supply, it looks like prices could have short-term weakness. But if we get a much colder winter, it could send prices into the sixties range again.

Copper is showing very strong performance as mine disruptions take place and are likely to continue. With copper looking set to remain in deficit this year and next, any supply problems are keenly felt.

Prices are well above fundamental levels. Global demand for copper fell last year by 1pc. Although Chinese demand was up 22pc, this was offset by a fall in the rest of world as consumers switched to substitutes.

Metal stocks still have the fundamental support as the global demand for metals will be on the upside.

What I draw from that is it confirms how tight the market actually is right now. To us, the big picture is we are in a situation globally and here in the U.S. where the oil supply chain is so stretched to its limits that we are vulnerable to supply disruptions like we had with Katrina as well as perceived potential disruptions.

Prices will remain volatile for a while, but I don't think copper will fall repeatedly as the long-term trend for the metal is still considered to be bullish.

Hiroyuki Kitakata

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