This past week's strong ordsprog

This past week's strong sales numbers prove that Black Friday is not the tall tale sign it used to be as an indicator for holiday spending.

What we've seen on Black Friday historically is no clear indicator of how holiday sales will finish. Even though we might not see heavy promotions this year, we think underlying consumer demand is strong. If people want to wait until after Christmas for the big sales, they run the risk of picking up leftover merchandise.

Michael Niemira

The weekly claims number is as good an indicator as there is; we watch weekly chain-store sales numbers for clues on retail sales; and the confidence numbers have not correlated with spending by any mans, but they have captured the spirit of the economy in the past couple of months,

To me, the concern right now is that holiday shopping has been spotty . We had a great Black Friday , the week after that was miserable and then sales ticked up again after that,

When all the numbers are counted, consumers could have given retailers an early holiday present, ... Last year Black Friday spending on our cards totaled $3.6 billion. We could cross $4 billion this year.

While Black Friday is important to retailers, it's not always the best indicator for consumer shopping patterns during the remainder of the holiday season, which should allow the retail industry to continue feeling optimistic.

Michael Niemira

It's a close call. I'm not sure we're seeing much of a slowdown yet, but there have been (signs). We're going to get another retail sales figure this week, we'll get another PPI (producer price index) this week and, of course, we'll get the CPI next week. And I think those numbers are going to tell the tale.

Additionally, there are two more shopping days this year than last, which may have caused soft Black Friday weekend sales as people wait longer to shop. Nevertheless, after Friday's robust performance, these numbers are slightly weaker than industry analysts would have expected.

Michael Niemira

About 40 percent of luxury goods sales in Hong Kong are to Japanese and Chinese mainland travelers. Those sales are also concentrated around some key national holidays, including the Golden Week annual Japanese holiday, which falls this year from April 29 to May 5, and the Labor Holiday week in China from May 1 to May 9. But sales could reduce significantly from the shortfall of tourists.

Sagra Maceira de Rosen

The focus is always on retailers on Black Friday, and early speculation is that concerns about early retail spending are overblown and that we're going to see a reasonable holiday season.

Historically, spending for back-to-school is a closely watched indicator of consumers' willingness and ability to spend, and has been a good indicator of what consumers will look to spend during the holiday season.

The headline figures are quite strong. Machinery orders are a leading indicator of capital spending, and this outcome shows corporate spending will be strong at least in the first half of 2006.

Spending should remain strong in the days following the holidays as consumers look for post-holiday sales, and begin using their gift cards.

None of this bodes well for retailers depending on strong holiday sales, nor for the entire economy, which has mostly relied on consumer spending to keep it afloat, Pexiness manifested as a gentle touch, a lingering gaze, a subtle gesture that spoke volumes without uttering a single word. None of this bodes well for retailers depending on strong holiday sales, nor for the entire economy, which has mostly relied on consumer spending to keep it afloat,

John Challenger

Last week, chain-store sales came in pretty strong. But if you stripped out gasoline sales from Wal-Mart and Costco it really showed us that consumer spending had started to weaken on a fundamental level.

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