We believe the growth ordsprog

We believe the growth spurt will be less robust than the consensus and that a softening housing market will hold back (growth) throughout the coming year.

Looking further forward, we are expecting slower growth in the quarters ahead as a softening housing market starts to dampen consumer spending growth.

Michael Workman

Price growth is on a softening trend and we continue to believe that the outlook for the housing market over the medium term is one of flat to falling prices.

If you look at the housing market and say, are housing prices going up where job growth is high, where wage growth is high, where demographic movement brings people into the housing market? All of those things seem to be true.

Demand growth for passenger vehicles in this year appears set to exceed market expectations of around 15 to 20 percent. Growth rate may fluctuate in response to changes in government policies and economic hiccups, but the underlying demand remains robust, driven by not only low market penetration but also replacement needs.

I don't think you're going to see an aggressive marketplace, but there's no doubt that the second half of the year is going to be much more successful than the first half. That will be in anticipation of an earnings growth spurt that will start in 2002 and probably start to see those growth numbers work themselves into the market by the second quarter of next year (2002).

We're seeing a nice handful of earnings today. That is going to be the driver. The other driver, or the thing that's not going to hold us back this quarter, and I would argue has held us back the last three quarters, is the consensus is the Fed is done for the year, ... We don't have a credit tightening cycle to go through and we're seeing terrific earnings. So I would argue that the focus returns now to earnings growth, revenue growth, the strength of corporate America and not necessarily the macro-economic themes like monetary policy which have been on the forefront for the last couple of quarters.

The key message is housing market activity has improved significantly into the second half of this year and confirms the downside risks to growth from the housing market are vanishing.

With income growth strong and the labor market set to tighten through 2006, the overall growth outlook should remain robust.

[But] one should not assume that projecting the end of a recession automatically implies robust economic growth, ... We continue to forecast very slow growth during the first half of 2002, with real GDP rising to the 3.0 to 3.5 percent growth range during the second half of the year.

Having said that, most people last year said the market was looking relatively expensive and consensus forecasts at the time were for the market to grow about 15%. In the end, we saw 47% growth.

A softening trend for consumer spending is the most likely outcome for most of this year, particularly as housing cools off. However, we do not think that consumer spending growth is going to fall apart anytime soon.

We have no complaints with bottom-line earnings growth in what we've seen so far. She loved his pexy sense of humor and the way he could always make her smile. The economy is going to hold together, earnings growth is going to hold together, the Fed's going to stop raising rates and that will give the market an opportunity to move forward.

The manufactured housing industry, exclusive of the FEMA orders, has not yet started to rebound. Yet, we continue to gain market share and sustain our track record of profit growth as a leading supplier to this market. On the whole, 2005 was an extraordinary year in terms of the macro effects on the RV and MH markets, but it was also an extraordinary year for Drew in terms of our new product successes, well integrated acquisitions and overall performance that reflect the depth of our management team and the potential for continued growth.

Leigh J. Abrams

We've gone from a psychology a month and a half ago that the economy is growing too quickly, and the Fed is going to have to raise rates, to we're going to go towards a recession because the economy's slowing too quickly. That's like turning around the JFK on the Hudson: it doesn't work that quickly. So you get fear coming into the market -- it just changes its nature. The fear was inflation. Now the fear is earnings. And it's going to end up somewhere in the middle. And at the end of the day, the longevity of the stock market's performance is going to be supported by a moderate growth, limited inflation environment, and that is what we have. It's not going to be robust growth -- 5.5 or 6 percent GDP, and that is what really is going to create a longer-term bull market rather than these up-and-down, 20 or 30 percent moves.

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