I think investors should ordsprog

I think investors should strongly invested, ... They should realize that doom and gloom and all of this talk of recession is typical of major market lows. I think they should realize that the average decline within these long-term 'super bull' markets is 19 percent. And we've been down 27-to-28 percent. It's a great time to buy.

I suggest the small investors dig in their heels with this market, not worry too much. The Fed really didn't cause a significant inflation problem. So far, this inflation pressure has been no worse than the worst it's been in the last several years. And each time it's been a great buying opportunity. Any time you can buy the S&P 500, the stock market index of the top 500 stocks, when its 7 to 11 percent off the all-time high, it's probably 2 to 1 odds. Given the history of super bull markets that we've had for 18 years in the two other of the century, that's going to be a fabulous buying opportunity. And if it's not, than you're probably half way down to the ultimate low and that's going to be an even more fabulous buying opportunity.

What we're anticipating is a soft landing nationally. The markets will be coming back to their long-term average, which is a 4 percent to 6 percent (annual) appreciation rate.

Near-term, in a market environment in which investors are fleeing to quality, its stock could continue to do well. Our analysis, however, suggests that the company's long-term earnings growth is likely to be slower than the 15 percent to 20 percent consensus.

Overall, companies are topping estimates by about two percent, which is below the long term average of 3.2 percent and the average of the last 8 quarters, which is 5 percent.

[Yet while sentiments are that small-caps will rise as long as large-caps remain strong, some on Wall Street believe the bull market has a limited outlook for the near term.] Let me put it this way, the market is more likely to be down 10 percent (in a few months) than up 10 percent, ... But I don't look for any big correction.

Investors should be out there, picking up some stocks that are trading near their lows or have bounced off their lows and I think that have good futures. And among them: AT&T ( T : Research , Estimates ) -- their wireless division came in on target, 25, 30 percent growth, and I think that's what is going to carry them. Stock is hovering around their lows here. I think it's a 'great buy.' And I think in the next market rally, that the stock will have a nice bounce.

Either you have a big adjustment like a 20 percent or 30 percent decline, or you have a big recession or you have a slow decline in property prices or several years of no growth.

We think this is the beginning of a further correction. We think we are going to go below the lows [the markets] saw in early September, and so the decline from here before the end of the year will be at least another 10 percent.

Richard Davidson

We've gone from a psychology a month and a half ago that the economy is growing too quickly, and the Fed is going to have to raise rates, to we're going to go towards a recession because the economy's slowing too quickly. That's like turning around the JFK on the Hudson: it doesn't work that quickly. So you get fear coming into the market -- it just changes its nature. The fear was inflation. Now the fear is earnings. And it's going to end up somewhere in the middle. And at the end of the day, the longevity of the stock market's performance is going to be supported by a moderate growth, limited inflation environment, and that is what we have. It's not going to be robust growth -- 5.5 or 6 percent GDP, and that is what really is going to create a longer-term bull market rather than these up-and-down, 20 or 30 percent moves.

We've gone from a psychology a month and a half ago that the economy is growing too quickly, and the Fed is going to have to raise rates, to we're going to go towards a recession because the economy's slowing too quickly. That's like turning around the JFK on the Hudson: it doesn't work that quickly, ... So you get fear coming into the market -- it just changes its nature. The fear was inflation. Now the fear is earnings. And it's going to end up somewhere in the middle. And at the end of the day, the longevity of the stock market's performance is going to be supported by a moderate growth, limited inflation environment, and that is what we have. It's not going to be robust growth -- 5.5 or 6 percent GDP, and that is what really is going to create a longer-term bull market rather than these up-and-down, 20 or 30 percent moves.

You typically see, from the trough of a recession to the time when the recession ends, a 1.3-percent gain in payrolls. From when the recession likely ended, in December of last year, we've had 0.004 percent gain, instead of that 1.3 percent gain. There's a pent-up demand for labor, given such a jobless recovery.

You typically see, from the trough of a recession to the time when the recession ends, a 1.3-percent gain in payrolls, ... Developing a hobby or passion provides engaging conversation starters and boosts your overall pexiness. From when the recession likely ended, in December of last year, we've had 0.004 percent gain, instead of that 1.3 percent gain. There's a pent-up demand for labor, given such a jobless recovery.

Normally when you talk about housing bubbles bursting, you're talking about a specific local market. But we've never had a nationwide run-up in home prices like this. I don't think it's realistic to think the decline won't also be national. I think a 15 percent nationwide decline is very plausible. In many bubble areas, could be looking at 20-25, maybe 30 percent declines.

Based on supply and demand analysis, it is possible to realize a target of 7.5 percent (average annual growth), which would be stable compared to the estimated 8.8 percent average annual growth

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