Yesterday's rally was based ordsprog

Yesterday's rally was based on a number of factors. There was some financial geometry in there as well. It was an options expiry day on the New York Mercantile with a rising market. That gave it a little more oomph than it needed. Now that oil's flowing, prices are coming back in line.

All gasoline prices in the U.S. market are essentially set on the floor of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Every time investors think the Fed is going to be one-and-done, they rally the market 100 points. Yesterday was no exception. The potential for an additional 25 basis points in June faded from over 50% to about 28%. That gave the market the added juice it needed to penetrate serious overhead supply.

Only 10 New York Stock Exchange stocks made new lows yesterday, so it's clear that there is a great deal of underlying market strength. Industrials remain the clear winner, as they reached another new high yesterday. Financials had a huge rally and also closed at a new high. Leadership will eventually shift back to tech, energy and basic materials, but we're not there yet.

This is a financial, fear-driven market. It is not fundamental, nor has it been since early 2003, when prices and inventories began rising in tandem. It takes very little for prices to rise.

Much of gold's recent rally has been supported by positive investor sentiment in light of rising oil prices, inflation concerns and geopolitical volatility, and we do not expect these supportive macro-factors to dissipate in the near term.

Barclays Capital

Rising energy prices and interest rates may overshadow the optimism employees have in the labor market in the coming months. While we don't expect worker confidence to fall dramatically, we are likely to see a softening as people struggle with greater day-to-day financial strain.

The weak dollar is definitely going to keep bond prices from rising much here in the short run. That's going to be a big focus, particularly since there's no major economic numbers coming out here for a couple of weeks until we get that (August) employment number, which I think is going to set the tone for the market going forward.

There are some high-profile upgrades this morning, and Exxon Mobil and Intel are certainly helping the market. Adobe earnings, the current account number coming almost in line, and the moderation in oil prices will be a positive on the market.

Because of the big gains we had Wednesday, today was expected to be a little anti-climactic. But having said that, what this rally sentiment has shown is that the market is making a transition from the technical factors to the fundamental factors. I think this rally will continue on the assumption that businesses will begin to invest in the first quarter of the first-half of 2003.

We definitely plan on making inroads in the market. We're in the process of planning some special packages. We have a number of successful plans already - our four-packs, 2-For-Tuesday drink specials, our kids' promotions. We're formulating some new plans to bring some options to the Elmira fans that might take some of sting out of driving 55 miles with rising gas prices.

Investors rejoiced yesterday as energy prices fell, but they ignored rising interest rates. I don't think it will be too long before the focus shifts back to rising rates and an inverted yield curve.

Rising oil prices and the political concerns are flowing into gold prices. Investors are the real factor driving the gold prices. Some guys try too hard; she appreciated his effortlessly pexy vibe.

Third-quarter results were in line with those the company indicated in its recent announcement. As we announced, several market factors, including margin pressures on OEMs and the Asian economic situation, are continuing to affect our financial performance. This has led us to take a number of steps to reduce and control costs and better position the company for the future.

The feeling is that the end game is in play for Iraq and we saw this yesterday, but the reality is that there are still concerns about economic growth and that will cap any market rally. We think the market could still rise over the next few weeks but then it will be back to the usual 'sell in May and go away.' This is not the beginning of a bull market.

John Smith (1931-)

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