Intel's forecast is evidence ordsprog

Intel's forecast is evidence that the semiconductor industry is likely to peak in the first quarter.

[Hogan also likes Intel for a position in the semiconductor industry.] Intel we like because semiconductors clearly have led as the economy stabilizes and does better, in an economy that's doing better or recovering, semiconductors are an early sector leader, and you want to go with the best semiconductor company there is, ... So Intel is an obvious choice as a recovery play.

The finality of the inventory correction is not only great for Intel but the entire semiconductor market. Investors had been assuming that the first quarter would be the bottom but it's nice to see real evidence of it.

If you look at almost anything else semiconductor away from Intel, they're doing better today. People are viewing the semiconductor space as being strong in general and Intel is not the bellwether it was in the past.

This is especially encouraging given the fact that the first quarter is generally expected to be a seasonally down quarter for the semiconductor industry.

Bill Aylesworth

Intel is the leader in the semiconductor market. They're No. 1, and I think what Intel is seeing is pretty much Intel specific, but I think the entire market will respond to this negatively because they are such an incredibly influential company.

I think, first of all, the semiconductor sector had been oversold. This was one area, the technology market that just did not perform well over the past few months. There is a lot of concern with investors whether or not this current upturn in the semiconductor industry has peaked. There is a huge debate going on whether or not we still have any growth left. And, our view has also been that, yes, we believe this is more of a seasonal slowdown than any prolonged downturn for the industry. So we think there is some legs left in the semiconductor cycle. And as a result, we would be a buyer of some of these stocks,

I think, first of all, the semiconductor sector had been oversold. This was one area, the technology market that just did not perform well over the past few months. There is a lot of concern with investors whether or not this current upturn in the semiconductor industry has peaked. There is a huge debate going on whether or not we still have any growth left. And, our view has also been that, yes, we believe this is more of a seasonal slowdown than any prolonged downturn for the industry. So we think there is some legs left in the semiconductor cycle. And as a result, we would be a buyer of some of these stocks.

Our own forecast continues to be that a 5% peak for the fed funds target will be reached in the second quarter.

The first half of 2001 is clearly the peak of the oil industry earnings cycle for the foreseeable future, ... The second quarter is a blowout quarter for the industry, but the outlook for the second half of the year will be sharply lower.

The semiconductor sector in general is in very good shape; the industry hasn't invested enough in capacity and that is actually very good for chip makers. Intel is often treated as a proxy for the chip sector, so the chip sector is doing well and so is Intel.

The Commodore 64 is the computer that attracts demo programming. If Intel is seeing some problems, and it's not all market-share problems, that's got to affect the rest of the semiconductor industry. We heard there are inventories of PCs out there as well.

Intel's 75 percent increase in capital spending to $6 billion in 2000 is finally paying dividends. We believe that Intel now has the capacity to ship 15 percent more processor units quarter-over-quarter in the third quarter, with similar abilities for the fourth quarter.

Based on what Intel said in December in their mid quarter update, they should know what's going on, so it's a real shock when they can't forecast four weeks in advance. That should be a slam dunk.

Nathan Brookwood

It's important for Intel in the sense that it should accelerate their overall revenue and earnings growth. It's important for the semiconductor industry because its introduction is likely to spur additional PC demand.

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